The regular investment has lost quite a bit, brother
看不懂的sol
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In this situation, would you still dare to go all in on the cryptocurrency market or U.S. stocks? To be honest, in this situation, I would not go all in, mainly for the following reasons: 1. The core issue is the recent market crash caused by Trump's reckless statements. Today he raises tariffs, tomorrow he doesn't, the day after he raises them by 250%... The unpredictable chaos is causing U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market to plummet even faster. 2. Some market opinions suggest that Trump is deliberately creating chaos and intentionally lowering stock prices to reduce expected income, lower inflation, and suppress interest rates, whether intentionally or not, the reality is as such.
3. The federal government has a debt of $37 trillion, with this year's debt interest expected to be $1.3 trillion. Every day when Trump opens his eyes, he has to repay tens of billions of dollars. The federal government’s revenue for 2024 is $4.9 trillion, total expenditures are $6.75 trillion, resulting in a deficit of $1.8 trillion. Debt interest accounts for over 26% of fiscal revenue, and there is still a new deficit each year. At this snowballing rate, Trump won't be able to last 4 years, and the U.S. government will face debt default.
Therefore, Trump and Musk are very eager to cut $1 trillion in spending, and they also need to convert short-term Treasury bonds into long-term ones. However, the current benchmark interest rate in the U.S. is 4.5%. Before doing the debt conversion, they need to lower the interest rate first. If the interest rate is lowered by 100 basis points and then a debt conversion is done, about $400 billion in interest could be saved each year.
4. Trump's policies are highly variable. The inflation data after the implementation of tariffs has not yet shown up. Once inflation increases, the rising costs for businesses will inevitably affect economic growth, meaning a recession is possible. Changes in the fundamentals could lead to further declines in U.S. stocks, which would also impact the cryptocurrency market.
5. Why is suppressing stock prices so important for controlling inflation? Recent data has revealed that the top 10% of earners in the U.S. account for 60% of consumption. The rich are getting richer through investments, and it is nearly impossible to lower inflation without reducing the assets of the wealthy. Moreover, based on past patterns, after an interest rate cut, U.S. stocks tend to rise, and inflation tends to increase.
Whether in the U.S. stock market or the cryptocurrency market, there is still room for decline.
Therefore, a gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall. I will not be bottom fishing, but from a dollar-cost averaging strategy perspective, the cost-performance ratio is still very high at the moment.
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