Currently, the precise and final terms of the ceasefire between Ukraine, the USA, and Russia are not fully defined or officially approved, as negotiations, according to available information, are still developing. However, based on the available data as of March 14, 2025, key points that are being discussed or proposed by the parties in the context of a possible ceasefire can be outlined. Here is what is known:
The proposal of the USA and the agreement of Ukraine:
Ukraine has expressed its readiness to accept the USA's proposal for a temporary 30-day ceasefire, which may be extended by mutual consent of the parties. This was announced after negotiations in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) on March 11, 2025. The condition is that Russia must also agree and adhere to this ceasefire. The ceasefire is seen as the first step towards broader peace negotiations.Russia's position:
Russia has not yet given final consent but has put forward its own demands. Among them:Ukraine's refusal of NATO membership.
Prohibition of foreign troops on Ukrainian territory.
International recognition of Crimea and four occupied regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) as part of Russia.
Additionally, there is mention of suspending mobilization in Ukraine during the ceasefire (30 days), which is likely an attempt to weaken Ukraine's defense.
The US perspective:
The USA acts as a mediator and seeks the quickest cessation of hostilities. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that "the ball is in Russia's court," emphasizing that Kremlin's refusal would mean an obstacle to peace. The USA also unblocked military and intelligence aid to Ukraine, which was part of the agreements in Jeddah, demonstrating support for Kyiv.Additional aspects:
Ukraine insists on humanitarian measures during the ceasefire: prisoner exchanges, the release of civilians, and the return of deported children.
Zelensky previously proposed a partial ceasefire (in the air and at sea), but under pressure from the USA, Kyiv agreed to a wider ceasefire without preconditions regarding the withdrawal of Russian troops.
Russia, for its part, may use the ceasefire to regroup its forces, which raises concerns among Ukrainian and American experts.
Current status:
As of March 14, 2025, Russia has sent the USA a list of demands that are described as "broad" and similar to previous ultimatums. Trump is awaiting Putin's response to the 30-day ceasefire, but the Kremlin is currently avoiding a clear position, which may indicate a stalling tactic.
Thus, the terms of the ceasefire currently appear to be an attempt to find a temporary compromise: the USA and Ukraine are ready for a 30-day pause on the condition of reciprocity, while Russia is putting forward strategic demands that contradict Kyiv's interests. Whether an agreement can be reached depends on further negotiations, but at this moment, the process remains uncertain.
What scenario do you think will unfold?
How will this all affect the US economy and the stock exchanges?