$ETH #美国2月PPI数据低于预期

### **Short-term Trend Assessment**

- **Neutral to Bullish Oscillation**: The current price has broken through the psychological level of 1,900 USDT, and the short-term EMA (7-day) is above the mid-to-long-term EMA, indicating that the bulls still have momentum. However, the potential death cross of MACD and the decline in trading volume may limit the upside, and caution is required regarding pullback risks.

- **Key Resistance Level**: 1,920 USDT (24h highest price). If it holds above 1,900 and breaks through 1,920, it may further test 1,950.

- **Key Support Level**: 1,860 USDT (near 24h lowest price). If it falls below 1,880, it may pull back to 1,860 to seek support.

### **Possible Scenarios**

1. **Optimistic Scenario** (Probability 40%):

If market sentiment remains optimistic and trading volume rebounds, ETH may stabilize above 1,900 and attempt to reach the 1,920-1,950 range, with a target increase of about 1.5%-3%.

2. **Neutral Scenario** (Probability 50%):

The price oscillates between 1,860-1,920, influenced by neutral signals from MACD and RSI, lacking a clear short-term direction, requiring attention to Bitcoin movements and external market news.

3. **Pullback Scenario** (Probability 10%):

If it fails to hold 1,900 and trading volume continues to be sluggish, it may test the 1,860 support level, with a decline of about 2%-3%.

### **Operational Suggestions**

- **Breakout Strategy**: If the price holds above 1,920 and trading volume increases, it is advisable to enter a light long position with a target of 1,950.

- **Defensive Strategy**: If it falls below 1,880, it is recommended to stop loss and wait for stabilization signals near 1,860 before re-entering.

- **Key Indicators to Watch**: Whether MACD can repair the death cross, whether RSI enters overbought/oversold zones, and the correlation with Bitcoin movements.

### **Summary**

In the next two days, ETH is likely to maintain an oscillating pattern, with a breakout above 1,920 or a drop below 1,860 determining the short-term direction. It is recommended to focus on range trading, strictly set stop losses, and pay attention to sudden market events (such as regulatory developments or changes in macro policies).