Possible Directions in the Next 1-2 Years
✅ Optimistic Scenario (Rising to $150,000 - $200,000)
- Conditions: Continued inflow of institutional funds + Global economic recession triggering safe-haven demand.
- Signal: If Bitcoin stabilizes above $120,000, it may initiate a new round of increases.
⚠️ Cautious Scenario (Pullback to $60,000 - $80,000)
- Conditions: Sudden tightening of regulations (e.g., globally unified capital gains tax of 30%) + Technical failures (e.g., major vulnerabilities exposed).
- Signal: If it falls below $90,000 for a consecutive month, risk should be monitored.
What should ordinary investors do?
1. Long-term Holders
- Can retain 50% position, sell 10% in batches above $120,000 to lock in profits.
- Pay attention to the next “halving” event in 2026 (halving of output).
2. New Entrants
- Avoid one-time investments; monthly dollar-cost averaging is safer.
- Don’t be fooled by “get rich stories”; ensure proper asset allocation (suggest Bitcoin not exceeding 20% of total investments).
Simulated analysis, view rationally, do not criticize if you dislike.