$BTC My scenarios for BTC price today:

Based on $82,200, here’s what might unfold by the end of March 12:

Bullish Scenario:

If BTC holds above $82K and breaks $83,380 (200-day SMA), it could test $84,449–$86,241. A truce rumor gaining traction might push it higher.

Target: $85,000–$86,000 by day’s end.

Probability: Moderate, given the recovery momentum and oversold RSI.

Bearish Scenario:

If $82K fails and selling resumes (e.g., due to equities weakness), BTC could retest $80K or drop to $76K–$78K. Persistent macro fears could dominate.

Target: $79,000–$80,000, with risk of $76K if support breaks.

Probability: Moderate, as bearish MACD and resistance suggest fragility.

Neutral Scenario:

BTC consolidates between $80K and $84K, awaiting clearer signals (e.g., US market open at 9:30 AM EST, or 9:30 PM UTC+7).

Target: $81,500–$83,000 range.

Probability: High, given current indecision and lack of a strong catalyst mid-day.

Final Analysis

At $82,200 today, BTC is at a pivotal point. The recovery from $76K reflects resilience, possibly driven by truce hopes and ETF inflows, but resistance near $83K–$84K and lingering macro risks cap upside. I’d lean toward a neutral-to-bullish bias for the day, with BTC likely ranging between $81,500 and $84,000 unless a major event (e.g., US economic data, crypto news) shifts sentiment. A close above $83,380 would strengthen the bullish case, while a drop below $80K would signal bears regaining control.