According to media reports on March 8, 2025, at 10:00, Bitcoin experienced a single-day decline of over 3%. The following is a specific analysis:
- Impact of U.S. Cryptocurrency Strategic Reserve Policy: On March 7, Trump signed an executive order to establish a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Although the government has promised not to buy or sell Bitcoin from the reserves, investors remain concerned that policy changes may lead to an increase in future market supply. Additionally, the White House announced an audit of existing cryptocurrency holdings, further exacerbating market uncertainty.
- Non-Farm Data and Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: U.S. non-farm payroll data for February showed an increase of 151,000 jobs, below the expected 160,000, indicating a weak labor market. Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until June. This has led to a fifth consecutive day of decline for the U.S. dollar index, while safe-haven asset gold has risen, but Bitcoin has failed to benefit and has instead come under pressure due to decreased risk appetite.
- Global Bond Market Volatility and Capital Flows: Japanese long-term government bond yields soared to their highest levels since the financial crisis, and Germany announced a massive fiscal expansion plan, triggering a global bond market sell-off. Some funds may flow out of the cryptocurrency market into traditional safe-haven assets or the bond market, putting pressure on Bitcoin prices.
- Historical Experience and Market Sentiment: The Bitcoin market has always been sensitive to policy changes. Although the strategic reserve policy did not directly restrict trading, there are concerns about the long-term impact of the government holding a large amount of Bitcoin, leading to panic selling and amplifying the decline.
- Geopolitical Risks and Other Potential Factors: External risk events, such as tensions in the Middle East, may have increased the volatility of the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, Bitcoin previously rose due to Trump’s pro-crypto statements, and after the implementation of this policy, some investors chose to take profits.