In recent weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced notable volatility, having lost more than 15% of its value since February 3, 2025, affected by global economic tensions and the movements of large investors. The question now is: Is this just a natural price correction, or are we on the brink of a deeper downward wave? In this article, we will analyze the main reasons behind the decline and predict potential scenarios for the upcoming phase.

Why did Bitcoin drop?

1. Global trade tensions

After former U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose new tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, global markets experienced a wave of uncertainty. These concerns reflected in financial markets, leading to a decline in high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Historically, during global economic disruptions, investors prefer safe assets such as gold and bonds, moving away from Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

2. Massive withdrawals from ETFs

Bitcoin ETFs have seen withdrawals of more than $3.5 billion over the past month. This significant capital outflow means that institutional investors – who were among the biggest supporters of Bitcoin's rise in recent months – have begun to exit the market, increasing selling pressure.

3. Market liquidity and the impact of whales

Looking at price movements, we find that Bitcoin's decline has been driven by massive sell-offs from large wallets (whales). When these entities sell large amounts, it leads to a sharp price drop due to a lack of sufficient liquidity to absorb these transactions. As selling increases, fear among individual investors grows, prompting them to sell as well, increasing downward pressure on the price.

Are we facing a new downward wave?

Scenario One: Natural Correction and Continuation of the Uptrend

A 15-20% correction is considered normal in the cryptocurrency market, especially after the strong rise Bitcoin has experienced over the past months. If Bitcoin can stay above the strong support level at $85,000, this may just be a correction before resuming the uptrend, with targets exceeding $100,000 over the coming months.

Scenario Two: Beginning of a Larger Decline

If institutional investors continue to exit the market and the economic environment remains tense, we may witness a deeper downward wave. Breaking the support level at $85,000 could open the door for further declines, with target levels at $75,000 or even $65,000.

What should investors do now?

1. Monitor key support levels: If Bitcoin holds above $85,000, it may signal market stability. If it breaks below, it may be wise to reduce risk.

2. Maintain liquidity: In the current volatility, having a portion of capital in cash or stablecoins (USDT, USDC) may be a good option to enter the market at better price levels.

3. Follow the U.S. Federal Reserve's decisions: Any changes in interest rates or monetary policies may have a direct impact on investors' risk appetite.

4. Avoiding panic: Volatility is an essential part of the cryptocurrency market, and those who succeed in achieving long-term profits are the investors who are patient and know how to exploit opportunities.

While the Bitcoin market is undergoing a strong correction, the overall outlook remains unclear. The future trend will depend on several factors, including the actions of whales, central bank policies, and Bitcoin's ability to maintain critical support levels. Whether you are a long-term investor or a day trader, the key at this stage is to manage risk wisely and capitalize on volatility to your advantage.