Combining the impact of Trump's policies since taking office and recent market dynamics, here is an analysis of the cryptocurrency market and response strategies:
After Trump took office, pro-crypto policies stimulated market sentiment in the short term, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $109,000. However, with unclear details on policy implementation and macroeconomic uncertainties, the market experienced a correction following the 'good news' realization, recently fluctuating between $83,000 and $90,000.
Market Characteristics
Consolidation Adjustment: Funds have been withdrawn from altcoins and concentrated in major assets like Bitcoin.
Diverging Sentiment: Optimism about policies coexists with economic concerns, leading to a strong wait-and-see attitude.
Feedback from users on X indicates that some investors suggest holding Bitcoin during the downturn and reducing exposure to weak altcoins.
Response Strategies
Short-term (1-3 months)
Mainly wait-and-see: Current market volatility is high, and panic sentiment has not completely dissipated. It is advisable to wait for clear signals and focus on strong assets.
Bitcoin: The strongest consensus, suitable as a core position, can be gradually accumulated if it drops to $78,000-$80,000.
Thematic Coins: Meme coins or AI-related tokens may have short-term opportunities; small positions can be accumulated at low prices, but do not heavily chase the rise.
Risk Management
Set stop-loss points (e.g., reduce positions if Bitcoin falls below $78,000) and ensure that positions match financial strength to avoid imbalances due to unrealized losses.
Medium-term (3-6 months)
Policy-Driven Opportunities: Pay attention to key events like the White House crypto meeting on March 7. If Trump delivers on regulatory easing or reserve plans, Bitcoin may return to the $100,000-$120,000 range. At that time, gradually increase positions in major assets and take partial profits during the rise.
If the global economy deteriorates (e.g., expectations for Fed rate hikes rise), the market may drop to $60,000-$70,000. Prepare spare funds to accumulate at lower levels while monitoring on-chain data (e.g., trends of large holders accumulating coins) to verify the bottom.
Long-term (6 months or more)
Structural Opportunities: If the U.S. becomes the 'crypto capital,' institutional funds will continue to flow in, benefiting Bitcoin and Ethereum the most. However, altcoins should be wary of divergence, as low-quality projects may be eliminated.
Macro Hedging: The crypto market is still influenced by traditional financial cycles, so keep an eye on Fed movements and dollar trends, and flexibly adjust position ratios.
In summary, it is advisable to seek steady progress, with Bitcoin as the core, to seize policy dividends while remaining vigilant against external risks.
