【Exclusive Opinion】Short position on $BTC to close in the 7-7.5w range
🤑 Policy Aspect: No significant short-term benefits, currently the sentiment is driven by the narratives around Crypto and AI
The market has seen a slight rebound, and we must acknowledge that for the Trump administration, artificially controlling the PCE to give Powell a way out and thereby maintain the pace of interest rate cuts is one of the shortest paths to controlling the deficit, and Trump will certainly try to achieve this (but it may not necessarily be successful). In the short term, the sentiment is driven by the narratives surrounding AI and Crypto, and it is unlikely to reverse due to a single PCE.
🤑 Technical Aspect: A weekly-level top divergence has appeared
On February 10 ($97,000), BTC's MACD showed a weekly-level death cross. Historically, after a death cross, the decline has been at least 15%-20%, and it is usually accompanied by a rebound. Currently, we are in a short-term rebound market, and the rapid rebound occurred after the U.S. stock market closed, generally leading to smaller fluctuations and trading volumes over the weekend. This rebound is not expected to last long; it is a good opportunity to short at high levels.
(This opinion only applies to $BTC and not to other altcoins; BTC has the closest correlation with macro policies and U.S. stocks)