Personal Views on Contract Events
Discuss personal views on contract events. Surely everyone knows that this thing is like gambling on the big or small in the betting software. Let's not talk about odds for now; betting odds can often be about 55-45. So why play with such low odds? Some might say that the betting software is manipulated by the backend, and the platform lets you win if it wants you to win. Indeed, this is true. The depth of Bitcoin is greater than that of betting, and the backend is harder to manipulate due to the large liquidity pool. Using certain specific strategies, I might survive in the cracks and maybe get a bit of profit, but you must understand that the essence of all strategies is merely to double your bet. If it’s not a double bet, combined with the odds, the final outcome is always a loss for you. The timing you think of for betting is merely to align with the candlestick chart, placing bets at times you believe have a high probability. What candlestick patterns? 111, 121, 221, 222, 333, and so on, based on some specific rules for betting. I would like to add that some people prefer daily charts, some prefer 4-hour charts, and some prefer 15-minute charts. In my personal view, they are all the same, just different frequencies. Adding time to all this, and equipping it with an accelerator (number of bets), you will find that the results are the same. Playing 1,000 in 10 minutes yields the same outcome as playing 1,000 on a daily chart. Some say the daily chart has a higher probability because the larger direction is relatively easier to grasp, but that’s because you haven’t factored in time. If you play 1,000 on a daily chart, I can play 100,000 in 10 minutes. In the end, you will find that no matter which, the outcome is the same. Even flipping a coin shows that the probability of getting 8 heads in 10 flips is almost zero. So what about 100 flips, 1,000 flips, or 100,000 flips? There will always be a time you hit it, and when you do, you will lose. Some people say they don’t use double betting, betting the same amount each time, but as I mentioned earlier, with odds and frequency combined, you still lose money. Without double betting, relying on win rates to win is nearly impossible. In 10 bets, 100 bets, or 1,000 bets, it might be possible, but what about 10,000 bets? Because flipping a coin is inherently a 55-45 probability, combined with the odds, you won’t make money. I once studied a strategy on betting software, similar to rolling over funds here, which is to lose 1 bet and continue betting 1x until winning 1 bet, then the second bet is 2x because the probability of getting heads twice in a row when flipping a coin is quite high. Of course, I modified the method in some parts, it’s not winning infinitely with double betting (I won’t specify the exact method here). This cannot be implemented on betting software because it’s all human-controlled. It shouldn’t work here either since you can only bet a maximum of 250u, and you cannot operate multiple accounts simultaneously because the betting times are different. A slight slip will lead to disaster. In short, I think it’s difficult to make money on contract events; I can’t say it’s impossible because I’m afraid of being attacked by gamblers, but in reality, it’s just impossible.