Below is a deeper analysis of the factors that may affect the price of SOL and the possibility it could drop below $100:
1. Market Context and Psychology
• Recent price trend: SOL is trading at around $143 and has dropped more than 8% in the last 24 hours. This decline is accompanied by a surge in trading volume (up 130%), indicating strong volatility and negative sentiment spreading within the community.
• Activity of 'whales' and major parties: News from the Crypto Beast tool on X indicates that Binance is selling off all its SOL assets. When a major exchange conducts a sell-off, this often creates strong selling pressure and can spread throughout the market.
2. Technical Analysis
• Important support level: Currently, SOL is approaching a strong support level around $130. History shows this is a point where buying pressure often appears, helping to limit the downward trend.
• Break scenario: Technical experts warn that if SOL cannot maintain a price above $130 – especially if it closes below $120 on a daily candle – there is a possibility of further price drops of about 35%. This could push the price down to the next support level around $75, clearly below the $100 threshold.
• Trading volume: A surge in trading volume often accompanies strong price volatility, which can be a sign of significant sell-offs or indicate an accumulation phase. However, in the current context, negative sentiment and sell-off news from 'whales' increase the likelihood of a support break scenario.
3. Fundamental Factors and Upcoming Events
• Token unlocking: Another key factor is the upcoming unlocking of $1.7 billion worth of SOL tokens, expected to occur on March 1, 2025. When the locked tokens are released, previous holders may sell their tokens, adding supply to the market and causing downward pressure.
• Capital outflows from exchanges: According to data from Coinglass, approximately $200 million worth of SOL has been withdrawn from exchanges in the last 48 hours. While this can sometimes indicate accumulation signals from long-term investors, it may also be a warning sign of fear and concern as prices continue to decline.
4. Price Development Scenarios
• Support scenario remains intact: If SOL maintains support around $130 – and especially does not close below $120 – investors may see signs of recovery. Accumulating investors may continue to buy, creating a 'price floor' to balance selling pressure.
• Support break scenario: If this support level is broken, especially with a close below $120, technical analysis forecasts a price drop of about 35%. In this case, the likelihood of SOL falling to around $75 or close to that is very high, leading to a price definitely dropping below the $100 threshold.
• Impact of token unlocking: The event of unlocking a large amount of tokens could catalyze a price decline if a majority of holders decide to sell immediately when the tokens are unlocked, especially if accompanied by spreading selling sentiment.
5. Conclusion
Summarizing the above factors, it can be seen that:
• Negative sentiment from 'whales' and selling activity from major exchanges (such as Binance) are increasing downward pressure.
• Technical analysis indicates an important support level at $130, and if broken – particularly below $120 – the likelihood of a significant price drop, possibly reaching $75, is high.
• The unlocking event of a large volume of tokens in early March 2025 could trigger selling pressure if there is not enough buying force.
• Although there are accumulation signals (such as capital flows out of exchanges), the combination of current negative factors makes the possibility of SOL collapsing below $100 entirely feasible if the situation does not improve.
Thus, if the sell-off trend and technical pressure continue, SOL is very likely to drop below $100, and may even fall below $75 if there is no recovery from buying forces. Investors should closely monitor technical support levels and the volatility of unlocked token flows to make timely decisions.
