According to reports, 11.2 million SOL from the FTX bankruptcy auction will unlock on March 1, valued at approximately $2.06 billion.
If the SOL sold after the auction is quickly offloaded by buyers (such as hedge funds or institutions), the sudden increase in market supply may put short-term pressure on SOL prices, even dragging down the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
Furthermore, $2.06 billion is approximately 5% of the current market value of SOL (based on a total circulation of about 440 million tokens). If released in a concentrated manner, it may exceed the market's short-term absorption capacity, leading to a price drop.
At the same time, investors may worry that large-scale unlocking could lead to sell-offs, triggering follow-on selling pressure, especially as the current market is in a fragile state.
If the unlocking of FTX SOL is handled in batches or restricted by protocols (such as lock-up periods), the impact will be manageable. However, the market has already reacted in advance, and the actual impact may weaken at the time of unlocking, potentially resulting in a rebound after the 'bad news is fully priced in.'
Similar large asset unlocks (such as Mt. Gox Bitcoin payouts) are usually accompanied by long-term expectation management, and the actual impact is often lower than the peak of market panic.
Mainstream exchanges may increase liquidity reserves or adjust margin rules in advance to buffer against volatility.
Therefore, short-term SOL prices will face downward pressure, but if market liquidity is sufficient and the sell-off is dispersed, the decline may be controlled within 10%-20%. In extreme cases, if it triggers a chain liquidation, a deeper pullback may occur, putting pressure in the short term but with limited long-term impact.
Investor strategy recommendations:
- Short-term: Avoid high-leverage SOL positions and pay attention to auction result announcements and buyer backgrounds.
- Long-term: Track Solana ecosystem data (TVL, user growth) and technological progress, and cautiously assess the market sentiment recovery pace when buying on dips.