BTC/USDT Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Analysis (15m Timeframe)
1. Market Structure & Trend:
• The chart displays a bearish market structure with lower highs and lower lows.
• Key Swing Points:
• High: 96,700.00 (Potential liquidity grab)
• Low: 95,536.36 (Last key support level)
• Price is hovering near 95,876.44, suggesting potential liquidity resting below.
2. Supply & Demand Zones:
• Supply Zone (Bearish Order Block):
• The strong rejection from 96,700.00 suggests a supply zone in that area.
• If price retraces toward this level, it could be a potential shorting opportunity.
• Demand Zone (Bullish Order Block):
• The area around 95,536.36 acts as a demand zone.
• If price sweeps liquidity below this level and shows a bullish reaction, it could confirm a potential reversal.
3. Liquidity Analysis:
• Liquidity Grab Above 96,700.00:
• The sharp rejection from this high suggests a stop-hunt or liquidity sweep.
• Institutions may have used this to trap late buyers before reversing downward.
• Sell-Side Liquidity Below 95,536.36:
• If price breaks below this level, it could trigger stop losses, leading to either:
1. Further downside continuation
2. A bullish reversal (Spring) if strong buyers step in
4. Moving Averages & Momentum:
• MA(7): 96,152.43 (Short-term trend indicator)
• MA(25): 96,156.04 (Medium-term trend indicator)
• MA(99): 95,561.51 (Long-term trend indicator)
• Bearish Signal:
• MA(7) & MA(25) are sloping downward, showing bearish momentum.
• Price is testing MA(99) support at 95,561.51—a break below could confirm further downside.
5. Indicators & Sentiment:
• MACD: Likely bearish, confirming momentum shift.
• RSI: If oversold, we could see a bullish reaction.
• Volume: Selling pressure is dominant, aligning with the current downtrend.
6. Key Trade Setups & SMC Strategy:
Bearish Scenario (Short Setup):
• If price retraces to the supply zone (96,200 - 96,700) and shows rejection, a short position targeting liquidity below 95,536.36 is possible.
