In the game of capital market, wise investors should regard technical analysis charts as topological maps of decision-making; only by abandoning irrational speculative impulses and using the Bayesian probability framework and Kelly formula deduction can we build the optimal stop loss boundary that conforms to modern portfolio theory - this is not only the dimensionality reduction attack of mathematical expectation on random fluctuations, but also the dissipative structure defense constructed by rational cognition in chaotic systems. $BTC