Crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@ali_charts) has a warning for Dogecoin (DOGE) holders, sharing a chart on Monday that highlights a noteworthy technical setup. According to Martinez, DOGE’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio just formed a “death cross” with its own 200-day moving average (MA) — an event that has previously been associated with significant price declines.
Dogecoin MVRV Death Cross Warning
Martinez’s chart, from Santiment, plots three key data points: DOGE/USD price (black line), DOGE’s MVRV ratio (orange line), and DOGE’s 200-day MVRV ratio MA (red line). He commented: “DOGE just saw a death cross between the MVRV ratio and its 200-day MA. The last two times this happened, the price dropped 26% and 44%.”
The newly printed "death cross" appears where the orange MVRV ratio line is below the red 200-day MA line. Analysts point out that historically, after the same crossover, DOGE's price experienced two major corrections: a 26% drop from early September to late October 2023, and a 44% plunge from mid-June to late September 2024.
Both recessions appear in the shaded areas on the chart and are marked accordingly. After each decline, the price of Dogecoin eventually rebounded, but only after reaching significantly lower price levels. Looking closely at the chart, the price of Dogecoin is shown to be around $0.268. The MVRV ratio (orange line) has risen by nearly 91%, while the 200-day MVRV ratio MA (red line) is hovering around 78.36%.
The MVRV ratio compares Dogecoin's current market value to its realized value (the total cost basis of DOGE's last move on-chain). A 91% MVRV suggests that market participants, on average, could see a significant uptick relative to their purchase price if the ratio remains above 1. While the exact interpretation depends on how the analyst applies the MVRV scale, a higher MVRV ratio generally means increased unrealized gains for holders.
The 200-day MVRV MA is a simple moving average of the MVRV ratio over the past 200 days. It provides a long-term baseline to measure how much Dogecoin's current MVRV is above or below its historical trend. In this case, a "death cross" occurs when the short-term MVRV ratio (orange line) falls below the 200-day MVRV ratio MA (red line), which often signals a potential shift in sentiment or imminent selling pressure.
It is worth noting that over the past few weeks, Dogecoin has seen some price weakness. Since the Dec. 8 high of $0.4834, DOGE has been writing lower highs and lower lows, which is a highly bearish chart setup. Martinez shared the chart below and said: “DOGE remains in a downtrend, forming lower lows and lower highs. Needs to break through key resistance to shift momentum!”
To do this, DOGE needs to break above $0.44. However, DOGE bulls anticipate significant resistance at $0.31 (.382 Fib Retracement level), $0.342 (.5 Fib), and $0.375 (.618 Fib). At press time, DOGE is trading at $0.26.
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