Leave a Comment / By Strong / February 11, 2025

Abstract

Traditional economic systems have established methods for valuing fixed assets, current assets, and intangible assets. However, how do we assess the intangible assets of celebrities (influencers, sports stars, political figures), political parties, and nations? This question is increasingly important in the internet age. This paper explores how to measure the market value of personal brands, political capital, and national credit using the replacement cost method, discounted cash flow (DCF) method, and market comparison method.

TrumpCoin ($TRUMP) represents a new model for monetizing intangible assets. Its value relies entirely on Donald Trump’s personal influence, yet its market potential may surpass that of traditional meme coins (like DOGE and SHIB). The global nature, decentralization, and user base of the cryptocurrency market allow for valuations exceeding those of the stock market, providing celebrities and political parties a tool to directly monetize their influence, bypassing traditional financial systems.

Similarly, the valuation of political parties can be based on fundraising capacity, voter loyalty, and policy influence. A nation’s valuation shouldn’t be limited to GDP and trade but should incorporate intangible assets such as the global settlement status of the US dollar, the technology industry, and cultural soft power. Even with a $35 trillion national debt, the US maintains financial stability, a testament to the supporting role of its intangible assets.

Entering the Web3 era, human capital, alongside traditional capital, is becoming a core economic asset. Cryptocurrencies offer a decentralized, humanist economic model, challenging the financial system of traditional capitalism. In the future, personal brands, political power, and even national influence may be directly valued through decentralized markets, becoming integral components of the economic system.

Valuing Intangible Assets: From Fixed Assets to “Humanism”

Credit depends on underlying value. Assets with tangible value, such as real estate, gold, and Bitcoin, can serve as collateral. But how do we value intangible assets?

Traditional asset valuation typically employs three methods:

· Replacement Cost Method: Calculating the cost of recreating the asset.· Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method: Calculating the present value of future earnings.· Market Comparison Method: Comparing the valuation of similar assets through market transactions.Fixed assets (such as real estate and factory equipment) are evaluated using these methods. But how do we evaluate the intangible assets of celebrities (influencers, sports stars, political figures, etc.)?For personal brand assets like those of Trump, Musk, or Ronaldo, their intangible assets primarily manifest in:1. Social Media Influence: Number of followers, engagement rate, monetization capacity (endorsements, advertising, subscriptions).2. Market Influence: The impact of their statements on the stock market, cryptocurrency market, or economic decisions.3. Future Earnings Expectations: Quantifiable income streams from books, speeches, brand licensing, and investments.4. Political Capital: Ability to influence capital flow in elections or policymaking.For example, Trump’s X (formerly Twitter) followers grew from 85 million to 100 million, transforming his personal brand into a global market force. Even after leaving the presidency, his words can still drive fluctuations in cryptocurrencies, stocks, and even gold prices. How do we value this “influence”? A DCF approach could estimate future monetization capacity, but past brand valuation models clearly fall short. Alternatively, a market comparison method could be used, comparing him to businesses or individuals with similar influence. But how do we find such comparable samples? Musk has the largest global following; does this mean his intangible assets exceed those of President Trump?A future question is: As individuals’ intangible assets become increasingly valuable, are there more efficient ways to monetize them?TrumpCoin: A Potentially Innovative Path to Monetizing Intangible AssetsTrumpCoin ($TRUMP) essentially represents the financialization of intangible assets. It lacks underlying tangible assets, relying entirely on Trump’s personal influence. However, its market value surpasses many companies with actual operations. Compared to meme coins like PEPE, SHIB, and DOGE, TrumpCoin boasts:· Stronger Brand Value: Trump is a former US president with a strong fan base and political influence.· Higher Market Attention: His supporters include not only crypto enthusiasts but also political donors, voters, and entrepreneurs.· Potential Political Influence: TrumpCoin’s market capitalization may be directly related to Trump’s political fortunes and could even become a new political fundraising tool.· Legal Considerations: Of course, practice precedes law.(1) Comparative AnalysisMeme CoinMarket Cap (USD Billion)Source of InfluenceApplication ScenariosDOGE370Musk’s supportOccasional paymentsSHIB89Community consensusOccasional paymentsPEPE40Pure meme hypeNoneTRUMP35Trump’s political influencePolitical donations, financialization(Using CoinMarketCap data as of February 7, 2025)(2) Cryptocurrencies vs. Stocks: Why Higher Valuations?Cryptocurrencies are generally valued higher than stocks due to:· Global vs. Regional Markets: Stock markets are typically nationally regulated, while cryptocurrencies are globally free-trading markets.· Wider User Base: Bitcoin has 1 million+ daily active users, Dogecoin 500,000+. In contrast, Apple has only 16,000 registered shareholders.· Trading Hours: Crypto markets operate 24/7, exceeding the daily trading time of stock markets.· Different Valuation Models:· Stocks are based on profitability (discounted cash flow). This is because the stock market is geared towards mature businesses.· Cryptocurrencies are based on consensus, market demand, brand influence, and the storytelling ability of early-stage projects, which generally have higher valuations. This is no different from internet projects, and the entire crypto industry is in its early stages.The emergence of TrumpCoin demonstrates that celebrities can fully monetize their intangible assets through cryptocurrencies, circumventing the rules of traditional capital markets.Valuing Political Parties and Nations: New Questions in the Internet AgeBeyond personal intangible assets, can political parties and nations be valued? This question becomes particularly important in the Web3 era because influence and political capital, representing credit, have become integral parts of the economic system. A change in US political parties leads to a different national valuation, reflected in the impact on stocks and exchange rates (e.g., from Trump’s election to February 2025, the US dollar index rose from 103 to 107). How does the market value the US and its political parties? Old polling methods and economic judgment methods are equally flawed.(1) Valuing Political PartiesIn the US, political parties are closely linked to capital markets. Their valuation can be based on:· Voter Loyalty: Number of votes and long-term support rates.· Fundraising Capacity: Funds raised during the election cycle.· Policy Influence: Impact on the economy, stock market, and technology sector.Market Data References:· In the 2020 election, the Democrats raised $1.5 billion, and the Republicans raised $1.4 billion.· Prediction markets like Polymarket allow for real-money election forecasting, with accuracy exceeding polls.· If we calculate election funds multiplied by the discounted present value of future influence, the intangible assets of political parties could reach hundreds of billions of dollars, given that US elections are already a multi-billion dollar affair.(2) Valuing NationsTraditionally, national valuation relies on GDP, trade volume, and the financial system. However, in today’s world, intangible assets are crucial determinants of national credit.Why hasn’t the US collapsed despite over $35 trillion in government debt? Because:· The US dollar serves as the global settlement currency, representing a world-class intangible asset.· US tech companies (Apple, Google, Microsoft) contribute enormous economic influence.· Soft power (Hollywood, NBA, university system) supports the US’s global economic position.Analyzing using the Fisher equation (the ratio of finance to industry should be 1:1), the US financial scale far exceeds its industrial scale, yet it hasn’t collapsed, indicating the role of US intangible assets. If we use global trade settlement volume as a valuation basis, the US valuation might be even higher, while China’s valuation might be underestimated due to its closed financial markets. In the cryptocurrency world, there’s a saying that the circulating value of a token is 3-5 times its non-circulating value, called the liquidity premium.(3) Valuing Global Human CapitalIn the Web3 era, human capital is the new core asset:· The internet economy has broken capital’s monopoly on resources, allowing personal influence to be directly monetized (e.g., YouTube creators, NFT artists).· Intangible assets, unlike cash, don’t depreciate but grow with time and influence.From this perspective, national competition is no longer just about land and capital but about maximizing the utilization of its population and talent.Conclusion: Cryptocurrencies and AI Are Reshaping the WorldIn the future, with the help of artificial intelligence, a large number of super individuals will emerge, such as the big influencers on YouTube and TikTok. One person’s profit may even exceed that of a publicly listed company. The problem is that their lifespan is short. If they issue a cryptocurrency during their peak popularity and establish a monetization model, capital will no longer be able to restrain them. New business models will inevitably emerge, and they will certainly be more beneficial to individuals. A certain type of person will become a scarce resource.People are scarce resources, and they are mobile. Generally, countries use attracting investment as a driver of economic growth. How do you attract talent? If the US doesn’t collect personal income tax, the mobile scarce resource—people—will flow to the US. This is the biggest challenge to the system of nation-states after the internet age. The US is already reducing government costs. If the US succeeds, all existing economic and political systems will be completely rewritten. The people will be the biggest beneficiaries of this national competition.The country that possesses the scarce resource—people—will have a competitive advantage.Times have changed. Traditional economic systems are capital-centric, but the internet and Web3 are shaping a “humanist” economy:· Celebrities’ personal brands can be monetized (e.g., TrumpCoin).· Political parties’ political capital can be valued (e.g., Polymarket).· A nation’s intangible assets can influence financial stability (e.g., the US debt issue).In the future, the monetization of intangible assets will further disrupt traditional financial systems. In the past, capitalists dominated the economy, but in the future, individual influence, community consensus, and decentralized economies may become the new foundation of global wealth. The cryptocurrency revolution is not a socialist revolution challenging capitalism, but a “humanist” revolution challenging capitalism.In the crypto age, economists who don’t understand cryptocurrencies will be unable to comprehend the changes in the future world.

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