1. Current Consolidation Zone
The price is consolidating near the major resistance level (~137.22), indicating hesitation from both buyers and sellers.
This consolidation forms a rectangle pattern, a typical signal of indecision in the market.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance at ~137.22.
Support around ~110-115 (lower bound of the consolidation range).
2. Historical Resistance at 137.22
This level has been tested multiple times over the past years and continues to act as a psychological barrier.
Previous attempts to break above this level (e.g., in 2021 and endly 2024) resulted in rejections and strong sell-offs.
If the price successfully breaks above 137.22, the next likely target will be ~160-180, followed by ~200+.
3. Volume Analysis
Volume Insight: The recent rally into the 137.22 resistance zone was accompanied by a rise in volume, signaling buyer interest.
However, during the consolidation phase, volume has been tapering off, which is typical before a major breakout or breakdown.
Watch for a volume surge as an early indicator of the next big move.
4. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The RSI is currently in bullish territory (~62) but has not yet entered the overbought zone.
The RSI momentum suggests that buyers are still in control, though a slight cooling-off can be observed.
A break above 137.22 could push RSI into overbought territory, confirming further upside momentum.
5. Potential Outcomes
Bullish Scenario
Breakout above 137.22:
This would indicate that buyers have regained control, confirming a continuation of the uptrend.
Targets:
First target: ~160-180.
Second target: ~200-220.
A surge in volume is critical to validate this breakout.
Bearish Scenario
Breakdown below the lower consolidation support (~110):
This would suggest sellers are dominating, and the price could retrace to ~80-100, which is a significant historical support zone.
Volume on the breakdown will be an essential confirmation.
Trading Plan
For Bullish Bias:
Wait for a clean break and close above 137.22 on the weekly chart, accompanied by high volume.
Place stop-loss slightly below 137.22 to protect against a false breakout.
For Bearish Bias:
Wait for a break and close below 110, confirming a downside move.
Stop-loss can be placed just above the lower consolidation box (~115).
Neutral Stance:
If the price remains in the current range, avoid trading to minimize exposure to sideways movement.
