Bitcoin's early profit-taking (especially the initial miners) has been completely cleared out, and Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.1 million coins are dead on the address. It is estimated that the situation is similar to Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.1 million dead coins, and more than 2 million coins are permanently lost.

The conclusions of multiple data mining companies show that 3 million to 4 million Bitcoin coins are lost, accounting for approximately 14%-19% of the total 21 million coins.

ETH has no such prerequisite.

ETH's 0-height block issued 72 million ETH to the foundation and ICO investors. Of these 72 million coins, 1.6 million ETH (2.3% of the current total) have not yet been cleared.

Compared with the current price, these Genesis coins can almost be considered to be at zero cost.

PoW mining started in 2015, with 5 ETH per block. By the ICO boom in 2016, an estimated 10 million ETH were mined. These costs were also very low.

During the ICO wave in 2016, there were still a large number of projects that could almost be judged as making profits at zero cost.

The DeFi summer that began in 2020 also gave rise to a large amount of potential selling pressure.

I don’t have the ability to research the specific quantitative data, and even chatgpt pro, who earns $200 a month, couldn’t help me do that.

But I guess that 14%-19% of BTC coins were locked in the early days, while the data for ETH is 2% to 5% (total amount is 120 million, and early profit-taking is between 2.4 million and 6 million that have not changed hands).

The potential selling pressure of several million ETH is a very large number. A huge transfer by an early miner on the chain will scare everyone, and various on-chain monitoring accounts will desperately forward it.

BTC has experienced a large-scale and thorough turnover in the past 10 years. Before 2017, miners were mainly Chinese, and before 2021, Chinese exchanges accounted for the vast majority of trading volume. These two facts point to the fact that Chinese hold a large number of coins, but after n government bans, the coins have been taken away by the Americans.

Compared with BTC, ETH's wash is obviously not thorough enough. The selling pressure from ETH's early profit-makers is too great, which may be the fundamental reason why the ETH/BTC exchange rate has been falling over the past year.

Why did the ETH/BTC exchange rate rise sharply in 2016 and 2020? Of course, it was because ETH had great innovations at the time, but BTC did not.

But in the past year of the ETF bull market, the policy advantages of ETH and BTC are almost the same, with BTC being slightly stronger. The selling pressure of early profit-makers has become the key to the price showdown between the two coins.

Comparing the four coins DOGE, LTC, BCH and EOS can provide auxiliary evidence.

Both doge and ltc were sold out by their founders, and the degree of decentralization of coin holdings is very high. Therefore, although these two products have no technology, no ecosystem, and no applications, their prices have not fallen too much and can remain in the CMC top 20 list.

BCH is similar. It copied the BTC ledger, which means that the 3-4 million BCH in the early days were dead coins. This also brought about a sharp drop in selling pressure, so the price was able to remain in the top 20 in the past.

PoW mining is more inclined to sell mining proceeds in time because of the mining machine and electricity costs. PoS mining is almost 0 cost mining, and mining proceeds are more inclined to accumulate and then sell later. Therefore, PoW mining coins are stronger than PoS mining coins in the counter-cyclical period, because PoW miners often clear their profits in time and will not accumulate risks, but PoS mining is more inclined to accumulate a big risk.

For example, even though the community locked up 100 million Genesis coins in block one, there is no doubt that the early profit-taking from DPoS node mining is still there, and the selling pressure is too great. The coin price fell directly to the CMC top 50.

Similarly, over the past 10 years, the coins that have been able to remain stable in the top 20 are either those with solid fundamentals such as real applications, users, and funds, or those that have been cleared out through early profit taking. The third situation is strong market maker coins (such as xrp).

If the above conclusion is correct, what are the inferences, or what opportunities are there?

First of all, I don’t think we need to FUD ETH. The fundamentals are still there. We just need to wait for the early profit taking to be cleared out. Although the price may

The pullback continues, but patient investors can still make a profit.

There is no need to worry too much about SOL flipping ETH. Wait until the early profit-taking of SOL is cleared before thinking about this issue. I think any ETH killer can only talk about killing ETH after killing its own early profit-takers.

When investing in coins, it is very important to examine the decentralization of the coins.

You need to be patient and wait. $ETH $BTC #你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？