Is it time for family members to adjust their "four-year cycle" mindset?

First, the entry of institutions, the approval of ETFs, and the decrease in the remaining unmined BTC have weakened the impact of the "halving" on the cycle.

Second, especially with the approval of ETFs, it has isolated the trends of Bitcoin and Altcoins. Of course, the poor performance of ETH, which also went through ETF approval, is because it is in the phase of transitioning from POW to POS, along with the Ethereum Foundation's inaction leading to a lack of new applications in the ecosystem. (Uniswap V4 may have a slight positive impact on ETH, which will be analyzed in a new post later.)

Third, the market's expectation of the four-year cycle leads traders to enter the market early, bringing the starting point of the bull market forward.

Fourth, from a macro perspective, the liquidity of money is arriving later than before, which pushes back the peak of the bull market.

Fifth, based on the integration of the third and fourth points, the market sentiment and macro forces will pull against each other in this round of market activity. Under the influence of this tug-of-war, this bull market will at least experience two kinds of changes:

The first change is that the starting point of the bull market is brought forward while the peak is delayed, which will lengthen this round of market activity.

The second change is that during this extended bull market cycle, the forces of market expectations and macro events will encounter several "collisions," resulting in more fluctuations in this round of market activity. The main players (whales) also need to complete their accumulation and distribution during these ups and downs.

Sixth, for altcoins, unless the cost of the tokens held is very low, the strategy of holding onto positions during the bull market, waiting for the main upward wave, may become ineffective.

Seventh, guessing when the bull market peak will be or when the altcoin season might occur may be meaningless (even so, Brother Bee still speculates that the altcoin season will happen in the first half of 2026 or early that year, which will be written about later). Just like Powell does not know when to stop QT or when to cut interest rates, taking it step by step may be better.

The analysis in this article is entirely subjective, but the first sentence of this article is indeed worth our deep reflection...