$ETH #deepseek The short-term trend of Ethereum is influenced by multiple intertwined factors, expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the following key points to focus on:
### **1. Key Technical Levels**
- **Resistance Level**: The $3,600-$3,700 range is a strong resistance recently; a breakthrough needs to be accompanied by increased volume; if it stabilizes or opens up upward space.
- **Support Level**: The $3,300-$3,400 range is a short-term defense line; a breach may lead to a retest of $3,100 (200-day moving average).
**Indicator Signals**:
- **RSI (Daily)**: Currently in the neutral zone of 50-60, with no obvious overbought/oversold pressure.
- **Trading Volume**: Recently consolidating with reduced volume; direction selection needs to observe breakout signals with increased volume.
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### **2. Fundamental Catalysts**
- **ETF Approval Progress**: The U.S. SEC's delay in the decision on the spot Ethereum ETF (before the end of May) dampens market sentiment; optimistic signals could lead to a short-term rebound.
- **Ecosystem Activity**:
- **Layer2 Growth**: On-chain TVL and trading volume of Arbitrum, Optimism, etc., continue to rise, while Gas fees decline or boost ecological applications.
- **Staking Dynamics**: Liquidity improved after the Shanghai upgrade, but the growth rate of staking ratio has slowed; attention should be paid to the changes in net staking volume.
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### **3. Market Correlation and Sentiment**
- **Bitcoin Dominance**: If BTC stabilizes above $67,000 and challenges previous highs, the ETH/BTC exchange rate may stop falling and recover (currently around 0.049).
- **Risk Appetite**: Fluctuations in U.S. stocks (especially tech stocks) and expectations of Fed interest rate cuts may transmit to the crypto market.
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### **4. Short-Term Risk Events**
- **Regulatory Uncertainty**: The U.S. SEC's determination of whether ETH is classified as a security remains unresolved; negative policy could trigger a flash crash.
- **Whale Movements**: On-chain monitoring indicates that some addresses have increased holdings recently, but net inflows to exchanges have slightly increased, raising concerns about selling pressure from large holders.
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### **Strategy Recommendations**
- **Neutral Wait-and-See**: Buy low and sell high within the $3,300-$3,700 range, follow the trend after a breakthrough.
- **Stop-Loss Settings**: Consider stopping losses if it falls below $3,200; light positions can be pursued after breaking through $3,800.
- **Watch Indicators**: BTC trends, ETH/BTC exchange rate, SEC policy statements, and large on-chain transfers.
(Note: Short-term volatility is severe; position management is a priority, avoid excessive leverage.)#DeepSeek冲击全球算力
