#合约交易 Core Principles of Profitability
1. **Strict Risk Management**
- **Position Control**: The risk of a single trade should not exceed 2%-5% of total capital (e.g., for a $10,000 account, a single loss should not exceed $200-$500).
- **Leverage Choice**: Beginners are advised to use 5-10x leverage, avoiding high leverage (above 50x) to mitigate liquidation risks.
- **Stop Loss Must Be Set**: Every trade must set a stop loss (e.g., stop loss when the price moves against by 1%-3%) to prevent losses from spiraling out of control.
2. **Probability-Based Trading Logic**
- Do not pursue 'winning every trade,' but achieve **positive expected value** (profit probability > loss probability × risk-reward ratio) through a stable long-term trading system.
3. **Combine Technical Analysis with Fundamentals**
- **Technical Analysis**: Use candlestick patterns, moving averages, MACD, RSI, and other indicators to determine trends and buy/sell signals.
- **Fundamentals**: Pay attention to macroeconomics (such as Federal Reserve policies), industry events (ETF approvals, halving cycles), on-chain data (net inflow to exchanges, large transfers), etc.
2. **BTC Contract Profit Strategies**
1. **Trend Following Strategy**
- **Core Logic**: Go with the trend, going long in an uptrend and short in a downtrend.
- **Operational Key Points**:
- Use weekly/daily charts to judge the major trend and hourly/4-hour charts to find entry points.
- Combine trend lines, EMA (Exponential Moving Average), or channel breakouts to confirm direction.
- **Case Study**: After BTC breaks the 4-hour EMA200 moving average and retraces without breaking it, go long and set a stop loss below the moving average.
2. **Range Oscillation Strategy**
- **Applicable Scenarios**: When the price fluctuates between clear support and resistance levels.
- **Operational Key Points**:
- Go long near support levels and go short near resistance levels.
- Combine with RSI (overbought and oversold indicator) or Bollinger Bands to improve win rates.
- **Case Study**: BTC oscillates in the range of $30,000-$32,000, go long near $30,000 with a stop loss at $29,800; go short near $32,000 with a stop loss at $32,200.
3. **Breakout Strategy**
- **Core Logic**: Capture trend continuation opportunities after price breaks key levels.
- **Operational Key Points**:
- Observe breakout signals after triangle convergence and box oscillation.
- Enter when confirming a pullback after a breakout, avoiding chasing highs or panic selling.
- **Case Study**: After BTC tests the $40,000 resistance multiple times and breaks with volume, go long when it retraces to $40,000, with a stop loss at $39,500.
4. **Arbitrage Strategies**
- **Funding Rate Arbitrage** (Perpetual Contracts):
- When the funding rate is positive (longs pay shorts), you can go short and hold a long spot hedge to earn funding rate income.
- When the funding rate is negative (shorts pay longs), you can go long and hold a short hedge.
- **Inter-Period Arbitrage**: Use the price difference between delivery contracts with different expiration dates for hedging.
5. **Swing Trading**
- **Time Frame**: Positions held for hours to days, capturing medium to short-term fluctuations.
- **Key Points**:
- Combine Fibonacci retracement levels and changes in volume to determine wave starting points.
- Take profit in phases (e.g., take profit on 50% of the position at a 1:2 risk-reward ratio, and trail stop loss on the remaining position).
6. **High-Frequency Strategies (For Professional Traders Only)**
- **Grid Trading**: Automatically buy low and sell high within a set range, suitable for sideways markets.
- **Algorithmic Trading**: Write programs through API to execute trades quickly based on market depth and order flow data.
3. **Practical Skills to Improve Profit Probability**
1. **Optimize Entry Timing**
- **Confirmation Signals**: Avoid entering solely based on one indicator; multiple indicators should resonate (e.g., RSI oversold + support rebound + increased volume).
- **Avoid Inefficient Time Periods**: Low liquidity times (such as early morning) are prone to spikes, increasing stop-loss risks.
2. **Dynamic Adjustment of Take Profit and Stop Loss**
- **Trailing Stop Loss**: As the price moves in a favorable direction, gradually raise the stop loss to protect profits (e.g., use the ATR indicator to track volatility).
- **Partial Take Profit**: Close part of the position at key resistance levels, while holding the remaining for greater gains.
3. **Utilize Market Sentiment**
- **Long-Short Ratio Data**: When most retail investors are long (long-short ratio > 1.5), be wary of the risk of a reversal.
- **Fear and Greed Index**: Extreme fear may indicate a buying opportunity, while extreme greed requires caution for potential peaks.
4. **Common Reasons for Losses and Pitfall Guide**
1. **Overtrading**
- Frequent trading increases transaction costs and may lead to repeated stop-loss in a sideways market.
- **Solution**: Trade no more than 3 times a day, waiting for high-certainty opportunities.
2. **Counter-Trend Holding**
- Blindly increasing positions to average down after losses ultimately leads to liquidation.
- **Iron Rule**: Never increase a losing position, strictly enforce stop-loss.
3. **Neglecting Funding Rates**
- Holding perpetual contracts for a long time incurs high funding fees (especially in the high fee phase of a bull market).
- **Countermeasures**: Choose exchanges with lower funding rates, or switch to delivery contracts.
4. **Emotional Decision Making**
- FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) chasing and panic selling are major causes of losses.
- **Advice**: Strictly execute the trading plan after formulating it, avoiding psychological interference from watching the market.
5. **Summary: The Key Formula for Profit**
**Long-Term Profit = (High Win Rate × Risk-Reward Ratio) × Strict Risk Management**
- **Win Rate**: Improve to 50%-60% through technical analysis and strategy optimization.
- **Risk-Reward Ratio**: Aim for each profit to be at least 1.5-2 times the loss (e.g., stop loss at 1%, take profit at 1.5%-2%).
- **Discipline**: Reject greed and fear, and adhere to the trading plan.
**Final Recommendations**:
1. First validate the strategy with a demo account before investing real funds.
2. Record detailed data for each trade (entry reasons, profit/loss results) and review regularly for improvement.
3. Continuously learn about new market changes (such as regulatory policies, derivatives innovations), adapt strategies to adjust to the environment.
Profiting from BTC contracts is not luck, but a systematic and scientific long-term accumulation. Maintain patience and proceed steadily to survive and profit in this highly volatile market.
