February 2025 is probably a midpoint on the uphill road. After all, it's been almost a year since the halving, and according to previous cycles, prices should start gaining momentum around this time, but we haven't reached the peak yet—historically, peak prices tend to emerge a year and a half after the halving (like in 2021). However, there are a lot of variables this time, let me elaborate:

Let's start with the positives:
If the Federal Reserve really cuts interest rates all the way to early 2026 as the market suggests, the scene of hot money rushing into the cryptocurrency market would be incredible! Plus, just a few days ago, Trump replaced the SEC chairman with his own person, easing regulations, and those people on Wall Street will probably open champagne overnight. And with the U.S. incorporating Bitcoin into its strategic reserves, if the traditional institutional funds are released... Tsk tsk, with all these buffs stacked up, conservatively estimating that in April-August, it wouldn't be unreasonable to see prices reach $110,000 to $120,000.

But there are also many pitfalls:
Just look at that ghost story from last December when 570,000 people were liquidated in a single day; this market goes crazy and even your own mother won't recognize you. And there are always people shouting that 'the bubble is bigger than the internet bubble of 2000'; what if a black swan event occurs, like a sudden global interest rate hike, or a major country suddenly bans exchanges? It could cut your investments in half in no time, believe it or not? So those who are faint-hearted might want to hold their hearts tight during this time.

My personal guess for the range:

  • If all the policies are favorable and institutions are wildly buying in, Bitcoin $BTC might even surge to $120,000 or even touch $150,000 (let's treat Standard Chartered's $200,000 projection as just an easter egg for now).

  • In short, absolutely do not go all in! I recommend keeping an eye on three things daily: whether the Federal Reserve has opened the monetary tap, whether the SEC is up to anything, and whether the technical indicators are showing any breakout signals. Remember, one day in the crypto world is like a year in the real world; this market is enough to make you swallow three rescue pills every day!