On January 18, 2025, former U.S. President Trump officially launched the Meme coin TRUMP, quickly becoming the focal point of the cryptocurrency market. This token named after a political figure, driven by Trump's personal influence and market sentiment, created astonishing gains in a short time, but also sparked widespread controversy due to its high volatility and policy uncertainties. This article will analyze the core influencing factors of TRUMP coin from short-term, medium-term, and long-term dimensions, and predict its future trajectory.
I. Short-term Trend: Dominated by High Volatility, a Dual Game of Sentiment and Technology
TRUMP coin's price increased by over 15,000% within just 12 hours of its launch, and its market capitalization briefly surpassed $80 billion, setting a historic record in the cryptocurrency market. The core driving force behind this surge was Trump's 'celebrity effect' and a concentrated explosion of community speculative sentiment. However, the extreme volatility in the short term also exposed its vulnerabilities:
1. High Sensitivity to Sentiment: For example, after First Lady Melania launched the similarly named token $MELANIA, the price of TRUMP coin plummeted by 41.4% within two hours, showing significant fund diversion effects.
2. Technical Correction Pressure: Currently, the TRUMP coin price is oscillating around $44, significantly retreating from its historical peak of $75.35. Technical indicators show that its Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the overbought zone. If it falls below the key support level of $40, it may further decline to $30.
Short-term rebounds depend on two major catalysts: first, the Trump team releasing favorable policy news (such as an executive order promoting new crypto policies); second, community hype generating new narratives (such as NFT linkages and ecosystem scenario expansions). Without substantial progress, the price may remain under pressure.
II. Medium-term Trend: The Tug-of-War Between Policy Implementation and Supply-Demand Conflicts
In the medium term, the trend of TRUMP coin will depend more on the Trump administration's policy execution and the token's supply-demand relationship:
1. The 'double-edged sword' effect of new crypto policies
If Trump's planned policies of 'national Bitcoin reserves' and 'relaxing crypto regulations' are implemented, they may provide endorsement for TRUMP coin. However, the execution of these policies faces legal obstacles, such as the independence of the SEC potentially hindering regulatory loosening, leading to repeated adjustments in market expectations.
2. The risk of sell-off from token unlocking
80% of the TRUMP coin supply is controlled by companies associated with Trump, and it will gradually unlock over the next three years. If the team sells off on a large scale, it may replicate the tragedy of QUANT coin's 98.8% crash. Moreover, the planned increase in circulation from 200 million to 1 billion will further dilute token value, testing the market's capacity to absorb it.
III. Long-term Outlook: Balancing Compliance Challenges and Strategic Value
In the long term, the survival of TRUMP coin needs to address two core issues:
1. Regulatory and Compliance Risks
The SEC may classify it as a security based on the 'Howey Test', thus facing strict regulation. Additionally, the capital gains tax issue related to unlocking tokens may weaken the willingness to hold them long-term.
2. Ambiguity in Strategic Positioning
Trump proposed the vision of building a 'digital dollar hegemony'. If TRUMP coin is endowed with the function of an on-chain asset trading medium, it may attract institutional funds. However, its 'celebrity Meme coin' label and the contradiction of lacking practical application scenarios may limit its long-term value.
Historical experience shows that while Meme coins like Dogecoin can exist long-term, their market capitalization growth heavily relies on sustained hype rather than fundamental support.
IV. Price Prediction: Possibilities in Multiple Scenarios
Based on the current market environment and policy expectations, the trend of TRUMP coin in 2025 may present the following three scenarios:
1. Optimistic scenario (probability 20%)
If new crypto policies are rapidly implemented and TRUMP coin expands into payment, governance, and other scenarios, the price may rebound to $80-100, with market capitalization hitting $100 billion.
2. Neutral scenario (probability 60%)
Due to slow policy advancement combined with cooling market sentiment, the price may oscillate widely in the $30-$60 range, with market capitalization maintained between $50 billion and $80 billion.
3. Pessimistic scenario (probability 20%)
If the SEC intervenes in the investigation or if the team sells off, it may trigger panic, causing the price to drop below $20 and market capitalization to shrink to below $20 billion.
Summary and Investment Recommendations
TRUMP coin's short-term volatility is extremely high, while in the medium to long term, it faces dual uncertainties from policies and supply-demand dynamics. Investors should closely monitor the following signals:
- Policy Direction: Details of the Trump administration's executive orders and the SEC's regulatory stance;
- The rhythm of token unlocking: changes in team holdings and compatibility with market liquidity;
- Community Ecosystem Development: Whether the expansion of application scenarios can break the 'pure Meme' label.
Risk Warning: Meme coins lack fundamental support. It is recommended that investors control their positions and set stop-loss orders to avoid excessive reliance on emotional speculation. Long-term investors should be wary of regulatory 'black swan' events and the risk of market liquidity drying up.
In the frenzy of cryptocurrency, TRUMP coin serves as both an experiment in the fusion of politics and finance and a barometer of market sentiment. Its future trajectory may profoundly influence the fate of the emerging field of 'celebrity tokens'.