#altsesaon

Has the 2025 Altseason started?

Altseason occurs when there is a significant flow of capital from Bitcoin to altcoins, leading to a generalized appreciation in the cryptocurrency market outside of BTC. Let’s analyze the events of 2021 and 2025 based on the triggers and impacts.

Altseason 2021

  1. Notable Event:

    • Dogecoin ($DOGE) began an explosive cycle in January 2021, rising more than 10x in 24 hours. This was followed by an appreciation in several other altcoins.

    • Factors such as support from Elon Musk, Reddit campaigns and a growing interest in cryptocurrencies have boosted confidence in the market.

  2. Market Context:

    • Bitcoin Dominance: Bitcoin dominated the market with approximately 65%-70% market share.

    • Bullish Cycle: Bitcoin had already surpassed its previous all-time high of $20,000, establishing a new level of confidence in the crypto market.

  3. Altseason Features:

    • Widespread Appreciation: After DOGE, altcoins such as Ethereum, Cardano and Binance Coin showed significant appreciation.

    • Decentralization of Interest: The narrative has shifted from Bitcoin to utility projects such as decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

  4. Time Cycle:

    • The 2021 altseason lasted approximately 3 months, with peak interest in March 2021.

Possible 2025 Altseason

  1. Notable Event:

    • The launch of $TRUMP, a cryptocurrency associated with Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, has already seen an appreciation of approximately 38,800% in less than 48 hours.

    • The intense political and media attention, combined with rapid listings on major exchanges, has drained liquidity from other altcoins, a potential catalyst for a new altseason.

  2. Market Context:

    • Bitcoin Dominance: Currently, Bitcoin dominance is hovering around 50%-60%, indicating a solid foundation for altcoins to gain relevance.

    • New Bullish Cycle: The market is close to a Bitcoin halving period (scheduled for April 2024), traditionally a trigger for a new appreciation cycle.

  3. Altseason Potential Features:

    • Impact of Meme Coins: Much like DOGE in 2021, $TRUMP could trigger a wave of interest in coins with strong narratives, increasing market liquidity.

    • Technological Evolution: The focus on DeFi, NFTs and blockchain gaming can be expanded by new innovations, such as artificial intelligence applied to blockchain.

    • Politics and Media: The involvement of public figures (such as Donald Trump) increases the visibility of the crypto market for new investors.

  4. Time Cycle:

    • Just like in 2021, the 2025 altseason could extend for 3-4 months, depending on the continued interest in altcoins.

Direct Comparison

Altseason 2021
Dogecoin ($DOGE) Explosion

Bitcoin Dominance - 65%-70%.
Main Narrative - Meme coins, DeFi, NFTs.
Impact of Meme Coins - DOGE and similar coins have gained prominence.
Estimated Duration - 3 months
General Capitalization - US$ 1.5 trillion (March 2021).

Altseason 2025 (Probability of having started)
$TRUMP launch and political appeal.

Bitcoin Dominance - 45%-60%.
Main Narrative - Meme coins, new blockchain technology.
Impact of meme coins - $TRUMP leads a possible new cycle.
Expected Duration - 3-4 months (depending on liquidity).
General Capitalization - US$ 3 trillion (estimated, with projection).


Possible differences between the 2021 and 2025 Altseasons

The 2025 altseason has more robust and sustainable characteristics than that of 2021, thanks to the involvement of new institutional, political and corporate participants that were not present or active in the market in 2021. This presence reinforces the possibility of a new explosion in the altcoin market.

1. Institutional and Governmental Participation

  • El Salvador: Since making Bitcoin legal tender in 2021, El Salvador has continued to accumulate cryptocurrencies, laying a foundation for future adoption. The country’s move has set a precedent for other nations to consider similar strategies.

  • Companies like MicroStrategy: MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, pioneered the use of Bitcoin as a strategic asset. By 2025, the company had accumulated billions of dollars in BTC, demonstrating confidence in the market and influencing other corporations.

  • BlackRock and Financial Conglomerates: The world's largest asset manager has launched cryptocurrency-focused funds and Bitcoin ETFs, facilitating the entry of institutional capital into the market.

  • Other Countries and Governments: Countries such as Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, and Singapore have adopted more cryptocurrency-friendly regulations, allowing large amounts of capital to flow into the market.

2. Adoption by Companies and Public Figures

  • Elon Musk and Tesla: Musk's support for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Dogecoin continues into 2025. Companies like Tesla hold reserves in BTC and experiment with innovative tokens.

  • Apple and PayPal: Major tech companies are exploring cryptocurrency payments and integrating blockchains into their systems.

  • Traditional Companies and Banks: Institutions such as JPMorgan and Fidelity have created specific divisions to deal with crypto assets, while central banks are exploring state-issued digital currencies (CBDCs).

3. Comparison with 2021

In 2021, the market boom was driven primarily by individual investors, influencers, and online communities. The lack of clear regulation and institutional players meant the market was more speculative and volatile.

By 2025, the entry of global players (such as BlackRock and MicroStrategy), more favorable regulation, and support from governments such as El Salvador have created a solid foundation for mass adoption. This scenario provides greater confidence and liquidity, directly benefiting altcoins such as $TRUMP, which can catalyze a new growth cycle.

What do I think?

While the 2021 altseason was dominated by community movements and the strength of meme coins like Dogecoin, the 2025 altseason is marked by unprecedented global engagement, with governments, corporations, and large asset managers entering the market. Tokens like $TRUMP have the potential to spark a new wave of altcoin appreciation, but this time with much stronger structural support. This foundation could sustain a longer and deeper bull cycle, creating a unique opportunity for investors in 2025.