加密夏森
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Various negative factors have emerged. The Ethereum Foundation has sold 100 ETH again; the US Department of Justice has been approved to sell the seized Silk Road Bitcoin worth $6.5 billion. This makes people wonder, is the bull market still there? Trump's inauguration date is set for January 20. The decline here is a cleanup of long leverage to reduce the weight of the car and continue the upward trend more healthily.
The previous value of non-agricultural employment was 227,000, and the market expectation was 160,000. According to this data, there is a high probability that non-agricultural employment will decrease, and there is also a high probability that the unemployment rate will remain unchanged or rise slightly. So theoretically, this is slightly more positive. If the unemployment rate rises, but employment is also rising, it should be a big positive, but the unemployment rate rises and employment falls, indicating that the US economy has a downward trend. Moreover, this data is completely opposite to the job vacancies on Tuesday, because job vacancies mean that employers have more manpower needs, which should be to reduce the unemployment rate and improve employment data, so the market expects that the economy will be good and the Federal Reserve will reduce or maintain the number of interest rate cuts.
But if Friday's non-farm data shows an increase in unemployment and a decrease in employment, it means that the Fed will open up more interest rate cuts. It is a bit early to say that there is an economic recession now. The market data is still good, so I think it should be a small positive if it really happens. Of course, if the market insists on interpreting it as an economic recession, then there is nothing we can do. So the unemployment rate data is always bad data. If the unemployment rate rises, considering the economic recession, the number of interest rate cuts will increase. If the unemployment rate falls, considering the strong economy, the number of interest rate cuts will remain unchanged or decrease. #美国非农数据即将公布
The previous value of non-agricultural employment was 227,000, and the market expectation was 160,000. According to this data, there is a high probability that non-agricultural employment will decrease, and there is also a high probability that the unemployment rate will remain unchanged or rise slightly. So theoretically, this is slightly more positive. If the unemployment rate rises, but employment is also rising, it should be a big positive, but the unemployment rate rises and employment falls, indicating that the US economy has a downward trend. Moreover, this data is completely opposite to the job vacancies on Tuesday, because job vacancies mean that employers have more manpower needs, which should be to reduce the unemployment rate and improve employment data, so the market expects that the economy will be good and the Federal Reserve will reduce or maintain the number of interest rate cuts.
But if Friday's non-farm data shows an increase in unemployment and a decrease in employment, it means that the Fed will open up more interest rate cuts. It is a bit early to say that there is an economic recession now. The market data is still good, so I think it should be a small positive if it really happens. Of course, if the market insists on interpreting it as an economic recession, then there is nothing we can do. So the unemployment rate data is always bad data. If the unemployment rate rises, considering the economic recession, the number of interest rate cuts will increase. If the unemployment rate falls, considering the strong economy, the number of interest rate cuts will remain unchanged or decrease. #美国非农数据即将公布
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