Many bloggers have been talking these days that the current situation is just a rebound, not a reversal. Their understanding of 'reversal' is a one-sided surge, stabilizing at 100,000 and continuing to rise without any drop. I think this understanding of reversal is narrow, or rather, incorrect. Some people often predict things like 'it would be great if BTC could pull back to 84,000 to build a position.' This is extremely easy to miss in the short term and can easily mislead short sellers into thinking that 84,000 is a mid-term target. As long as it rises above 100,000 again or even reaches new highs afterwards, those short sellers who entered at low prices will be in a panic.

I believe that every time BTC bounces back and holds around 90,000, we shouldn't talk too much about bearish scenarios down to 80,000-70,000. BTC has repeatedly tested 90,000 without breaking down, and then surged back to 96,000/97,000, stabilizing around 95,000. Breaking through 97,200-97,700 is a reversal because breaking through here will immediately bring it to 98,200-98,800, and once the pressure at 98,200 is digested, it will push towards 100,000 and above. Now, if it can't break through in one go and falls back, it will continue to surge because today Congress certified Trump's victory, and on January 20th, Trump will be officially inaugurated. During this period, it is a positive expectation, rather than starting to rise only on January 20th. After January 20th, the good news will basically allow for selling at high points.

The second half of the bull market, no matter how strong the upward trend is, does not exist as a pure one-sided rise. Because the higher the price, the larger the amount of funds needed to drive it up. 100,000 is a major node, and for retail investors in this round of halving, 100,000 and above is already considered a high price in their minds, making it easy to sell immediately. When there are sales, there will be volatility and pullbacks, but the pullback range for retail investors is usually very small. Only the main forces create significant volatility, and the only factors that lead to concentrated selling by the main forces are information-related, primarily the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, followed by external factors such as wars, pandemics, etc. Therefore, even without any information-driven direction, the price cannot just rise without falling. Thus, the reversal after the interest rate meeting on December 18 should not be understood as a one-sided rise, but rather as the end of a pullback, with bearish momentum turning into bullish momentum. A rate cut in January is bearish, but this has already been digested by the market; the pullback over the past two weeks reflects the impact of this bearish news! The key is to buy at lows with a unified mindset, without trying to catch the top. There is no top at the moment, and if you're not careful, you could easily get stuck. Human nature dictates that the more it rises, the more it will fall, leading to continuous short covering. At this point, if there is a favorable expectation of a rate cut in March, short sellers will definitely be in trouble.