When the bullrun is over?

Predicting the exact top of the cryptocurrency market is highly speculative and influenced by numerous variables, including macroeconomic conditions, market sentiment, and technological developments. However, using historical patterns, fundamental analysis, and market cycles, we can provide a framework to help identify potential indicators of a market top.

Framework to Identify Potential Market Tops

1. Historical Market Cycles

Cryptocurrencies often follow a 4-year cycle tied to Bitcoin's halving events, which reduce the block reward miners receive:

Halving Effect: Historically, Bitcoin halvings (2024 is the next halving) have been followed by significant bull markets within 12–18 months.

Previous tops occurred ~12-18 months post-halving (2017, 2021).

A potential top could occur around mid to late 2025 based on this trend.

2. Market Sentiment and Indicators

Extreme Greed: The cryptocurrency "Fear & Greed Index" reaching extreme greed levels can signal overheated markets.

Parabolic Price Movements: When prices rise exponentially over a short period, it often indicates unsustainable growth.

Search Volume: Significant spikes in Google Trends for terms like "Bitcoin" or "crypto" correlate with market tops.

Social Media Hype: Overhyped discussions about unrealistic price predictions and "get-rich-quick" sentiment often precede market corrections.

3. On-Chain Metrics

Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV):

When the MVRV ratio is significantly above historical averages, it suggests overvaluation and a potential market top.

Exchange Inflows: High inflows of Bitcoin or Ethereum to exchanges can indicate selling pressure.

Active Addresses: Peaks in active address growth often coincide with market tops.