The two most important events this week:
Retail investors' fantasies are:
- Harris elected, Bitcoin plummets 📉50%
- Trump elected, Bitcoin surges 📈100,000
1. The results of the election on November 5 may be announced that night. Remember the last time Trump was elected, the market went from limit up to limit down, and many people were liquidated in a single day.
2. The interest rate meeting from November 6 to November 7, if there is a rate cut, it may lead to a wave of increases. If not, the market will likely continue along its original trend. Based on non-farm payroll data, this interest rate meeting is expected to cut by 25 basis points. However, if these two events are combined, the situation becomes complicated, and there may be significant volatility.
The structure of this round of Bitcoin market is clear. Whether Trump or Harris is elected, it will not disrupt the market structure. The big players are responsible for the market trend and maximizing their own interests, not for Trump or Harris.
Therefore, after the election results come out at noon on the 6th, the market's fluctuations may be far below most people's expectations. This has been verified countless times, such as on the night of rate cuts, or when Trump attended the Bitcoin conference, etc.
The most likely scenario is that after the election results come out, there will be a spike up/down. Then the market will continue as it was going to. The structure of the Bitcoin market has been established through a series of actions over the past six months, including a significant drop, consolidation, forced liquidation, and accumulation, and will not be disrupted by a single event.
The benefit of the U.S. election for big players is the ability to leverage both sides, increase volatility, and create market divergence, providing stories to tell. The U.S. election is the most favorable tool for big players to tell stories after ETFs. #美国大选后行情预测 #美国大选后涨或跌？ #BTC市占率新高 #比特币矿工收入飙升 $BTC