According to Odaily, Charlie McElligott, Managing Director and Macro Strategist for Cross-Asset at Nomura Americas, has issued a warning in his latest report. He cautions that the market may have over-hedged in anticipation of a Republican victory in both houses of Congress in the upcoming elections. McElligott suggests that there is a risk of an unexpected outcome, such as higher-than-expected support for Harris or a deadlock in the election, which could lead to a reversal in various asset classes.
In the coming days and the next two weeks, several significant events are expected to impact the market. The U.S. Treasury will undertake substantial issuances in the early fiscal year 2025, including $70 billion in five-year Treasury notes, $69 billion in two-year Treasury notes, and $44 billion in seven-year Treasury notes. Additionally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report will be released, providing insights into job vacancies in the U.S.
Other key events include the Treasury's latest refinancing announcement, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, the U.S. Presidential Election Day, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in November. These events are expected to have significant implications for the market, and investors are advised to stay vigilant.