Current status of airdrops in 2024: User FUD, declining protocol fundamentals? What indicators should be evaluated when buying airdrop coins?
Delphi recently released the report “Is Airdrop a Pro or a Con?”, which provides interesting insights using data.
Essentials, a must-read for users and founders ↓
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Uniswap$UNI The airdrop was a historic moment for Web3, and even four years later, it remains the largest airdrop event ever, with a total value of $6.4 billion at its peak.
Since then, the Web3 industry has undergone major changes. New protocols often use Airdrop strategies to obtain early users and impressive data, and a large number of airdrop hunters/fleecing users have also emerged.
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The 50 largest airdrops in Web3 to date have distributed over $26.6 billion in total value
This “free money” opportunity has not gone unnoticed. Now, every high-quality project will attract a large number of users after its release, who are eager to exchange the initial airdrop tokens for the lowest possible cost (time, attention and gas).
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Therefore, new protocols have developed new airdrop standards and anti-sybil measures
The earliest is the fixed reward system ($UNI ）
Then there was a tiered airdrop ($JTO ）
Optimism has pioneered multiple airdrop standards
Now, new protocols prefer a points system
4/
However, the main problem with airdrops for many protocols that are popular with crypto-money traders is the bubble effect:
Once the snapshot is over, the usage metrics drop dramatically
5/
Let’s take the popular project Layerzero as an example
Since April, @StargateFinance’s cross-chain transaction volume has dropped significantly from $1.67 billion to $406.7 million, a decrease of about 75%
I personally did not interact specifically for airdrops, I just used it for cross-chain, so the airdrop was natural - about $400
L0 is not a special case, this phenomenon is very common
6/
Before the $ZK airdrop, @zksync’s Daily Fees were almost on par with Arbitrum
However, since the official snapshot and TGE, daily fees have been falling. Recently, the figure fell below $10,000 for the first time.
7/
There are also Kamino, Parcl, Manta, Jito, all cases show a similar pattern: after the snapshot, the on-chain activity experienced a significant decline
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From another perspective, the biggest problem with the inorganic growth strategy of airdrops for the subsequent development of the project is that it will affect users and investors’ evaluation of the protocol and investment decisions.
The following points may help:
• Check whether the DAU and MAU indicators have dropped significantly after the protocol announced the airdrop snapshot
• Measure how many users continue to use the protocol within a predetermined period of time (e.g. 1 week, 1 month) after the airdrop
• Measure the ratio of new to returning users in DAU or WAU
• Monitor the number of transactions per user
• Monitor which features of the protocol are being used heavily and how often. If the core features of a protocol are still being used after an airdrop, it indicates that the market fit of the protocol is high.
• Track wallet engagement metrics
• Monitor community discussions and governance activities
Another issue discussed in the 2024 airdrop circle is the widespread adoption of the "low circulation, high FDV" token model by many new protocols. This model makes it difficult for buyers to assess their growth potential, let alone offset the airdrop selling pressure.
8/ Personal opinion
Airdrops are indeed one of the most effective means for new protocols to attract users, some of whom may eventually become loyal/active users. However, this is a bit like a giveaway on Twitter: some users will visit, a few may become active users, but most will disappear.
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