#BTC下跌分析
Hello everyone, today we are going to talk about the recent trends in the Bitcoin and altcoin markets. Whether you are a novice or a veteran, understanding current market trends and future expectations can help you make more informed investment decisions.
$BTC
⭐Market status
The recent decline in the altcoin market is mainly due to the massive sell-off by the German government, which has led to a drop in the price of Bitcoin (BTC), dragging down the overall performance of altcoins. However, Ethereum (ETH) has shown strong resilience. On the monthly chart, ETH has always formed a solid support at $2,800, and each decline has been resolved, showing its potential upward momentum.
⭐ Bitcoin future predictions
Anonymous analyst Dave the Wave shared his views on the social media platform X. He believes that Bitcoin's short-term pullback could lead to a long-term rise. He predicts that BTC may return to the "buy zone" of his Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) model and then hit a local bottom. This model is designed to filter short-term fluctuations and predict Bitcoin's long-term cycle lows and highs.
Dave the Wave noted that Bitcoin could start a parabolic rise after a 40% correction, as it did in early 2017. He expects that if Bitcoin experiences a similar 40% drop north of the 0.38 Fibonacci level, the price will reach $44,000. In this case, Bitcoin is expected to reach $220,000 by the end of 2025, a 400% increase.
⭐Market history and correlation with US stocks
Currently, the situation where US stocks are rising and Bitcoin is falling has been similar in history. In the last bull market, Bitcoin and US stocks maintained a positive correlation for most of the time, but after BTC first peaked, there was a short-term negative correlation. This situation seems to be repeating. According to historical data, this divergence lasts about 9 weeks, after which the two resume positive correlation.
⭐Influence of the macro environment
Whether it is Bitcoin, gold or US stocks, they are all affected by similar economic factors, such as financial liquidity and risk-free asset returns. In the early stages of a bull market, Bitcoin usually leads the market due to its higher resilience, but as the market rises further, when liquidity is insufficient to support a collective rise in all asset classes, divergences between assets may occur. The market has also been affected by factors such as the German government's sell-off in the recent period, but in the long run, Bitcoin may still restore its positive correlation with US stocks after sufficient adjustments.
⭐Technical indicator analysis
Bullish indicators: Although BTC has fallen 11.87% in the past 7 days, other Layer 1 tokens have increased by an average of 10.90%, which may indicate that the market has not yet fully realized the potential value of BTC. In addition, the BTC price is below the lower track of the Bollinger Band, indicating that the market may be oversold and may rebound in the short term.
Neutral indicators: Currently, BTC’s relative strength index (RSI) is 33.19, indicating that the market conditions are neutral, with no obvious overbought or oversold signals.
Bearish indicators: MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is growing, indicating that the market is gaining momentum and may fall further. In addition, BTC price is below the moving average, and the moving average is trending down, indicating that the market is trending down.
In summary, although the market is volatile in the short term, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies still have huge growth potential in the long run. Investors should pay attention to the macroeconomic environment and technical indicators to formulate more rational investment strategies.