According to Cointelegraph, the value of crypto token unlocks is projected to decrease sharply to $3 billion in August, marking a 52% drop from the $6.3 billion unlocked in July, as reported by vesting data tracker Tokenomist. Despite this overall decline, several significant token unlocks could still influence market prices. Among the most notable are Sui (SUI), Aptos (APT), Avalanche (AVAX), and Arbitrum (ARB).
Sui is set to release $167.62 million in vested tokens on August 1, making it the largest scheduled token unlock for the month. This event could have a substantial impact due to Sui's high fully diluted valuation, which indicates a high market valuation despite only 34.5% of its supply being unlocked, according to Tokenomist data. Such scenarios often present increased risks during unlock events, as the introduction of more tokens into circulation could lead to selling pressure if early holders decide to sell their holdings.
Despite the anticipated significant drop in crypto emissions in August, it may not necessarily indicate a long-term market slowdown. Vincent Kadar, CEO of security token platform Polymath, explained to Cointelegraph that token unlocks often follow cycles that mirror sentiment, risk appetite, and liquidity planning shifts. He noted that while a 50% drop is significant, it does not necessarily signal a long-term slowdown. Projects are adapting to evolving market trends, new regulations, and the necessity to demonstrate their utility before increasing supply.
Kadar also highlighted a shift in how institutions and sophisticated investors assess token unlocks. Previously, there was 'unlock anxiety' when supply cliffs caused panic and volatility. Now, the conversation has become more nuanced, with investors focusing on the economics of token unlocks, real adoption, governance transparency, and alignment of incentives for long-term value. Compliance and sustainability have also become crucial factors, particularly for projects seeking institutional capital. Kadar emphasized that this shift is constructive for the industry as blockchain projects expand and integrate with public markets, changing the nature of the conversation.
