According to ChainCatcher, the focus of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes is as follows:
1) How likely is a rate cut in July: How much support will Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump 1.0, garner? Both have indicated they will consider a rate cut at the July meeting, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be temporary.
2) The wait-and-see period ends in the summer, and a rate cut may occur in September: The minutes may suggest that the 'interest rate trajectory will depend on data released in June, July, and August,' and the 'wait-and-see' period may end by late summer. The minutes may indicate that the committee expects to have the necessary data to make a rate cut decision before the end of summer. If conditions meet expectations, this will strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September.
3) Lowering Interest Rate Threshold: The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting may read more dovishly. During the June meeting, Powell leaned towards using neutral language, but the minutes may better reflect what Powell did not explicitly state: the threshold for lowering interest rates is decreasing.
4) Internal Discrepancies: Among the 19 officials in June, 7 believed that there was no need to lower interest rates this year, 2 expected one rate cut, 8 anticipated two cuts, and 2 expected three cuts. Analysts will look for clues as to what led to these discrepancies. What supports the viewpoint of the 7 Federal Reserve officials who believe that there will be no rate cuts at all in 2025?
5) Concerns about Dual Mandate: Previous economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve indicated that inflation would accelerate in the remaining time this year, but in 2026, even if interest rates are expected to decrease, the pace of price increases will again decline. There is also concern about whether there are serious worries regarding the strength of the job market.