Market Expects Reserve Bank of Australia to Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points

According to reports from Jinshi Data, the market generally expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on July 8. A Reuters survey shows that out of 37 economists, 31 expect the rate cut on Tuesday to be 25 basis points. LSEG data also indicates a 97.63% probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting rates on Tuesday.

The market's reaction to a 25 basis point rate cut will depend on the tone of the Reserve Bank of Australia's statement and the press conference by Governor Lowe. Both may exhibit a cautious tone before the final tariff deadline set by Trump on July 9. The goal of the Reserve Bank of Australia is to take measures most favorable to Australia's economic growth and inflation without causing market turmoil.