According to PANews, the market focus in the past week was mainly on the United States, with various indexes hitting record highs almost every day, showing an extremely enthusiastic mood. It is worth noting that asset management companies are increasingly bullish on US stocks, and market sentiment may be a bit too excited. This may lead to over-concentration of positions, and once there is bad news, such as the tariff deadline set by Trump on July 9, market volatility may increase. Looking ahead to next week, traders will pay close attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, the latest statements of FOMC voting members, and the latest progress of Trump's tariff negotiations.
Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week. On Tuesday, the New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations for June. On Wednesday, China's CPI annual rate for June. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting; the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 5; and the speech of 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Moussalem on the US economy and monetary policy. On Friday, 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly spoke on the US economic outlook.
After the release of the non-farm payrolls report that exceeded expectations this week, US data will enter a quiet period next week. According to LSEG data, the market now believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July is only 4%, and it will not be fully priced until October. Investors are looking for the latest clues on the labor market, including the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which will be released next Tuesday, and the initial jobless claims data, which will be released next Thursday.