According to a report by Deep Tide TechFlow, on July 2, Goldman Sachs pointed out that if the Federal Reserve shifts to a dovish stance, four market scenarios will emerge: pure dovish policy shock, decline in growth expectations, coexistence of dovishness and growth decline, and dovishness and growth rising in parallel.
Analysis shows that the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, the strengthening of the euro/yen/franc, and the rise in gold are the most stable trends across all scenarios, while the performance of U.S. stocks depends on growth prospects. The 'dovish + growth rising' scenario is most favorable for risk assets.
If summer employment and inflation data worsen, it may reignite concerns about growth. The market has already begun to price in the Federal Reserve's easing policy, and future trends will depend on the performance of economic data.