According to Jin10 data reports, the Swiss economy faces multiple challenges. The appreciation of the Swiss franc has hindered exports, inflation is sluggish, and there is a strong reliance on international trade. The U.S. has imposed high tariffs on Switzerland, affecting exports.
The Swiss National Bank has limited policy space, with interest rates already at 0.25%. If the economy deteriorates, it may need to cut rates to negative. Large-scale foreign exchange interventions may face sanctions from Trump, so caution is necessary.
Investment Banking View: ING believes that interest rate cuts are the only option. Goldman Sachs predicts that the Swiss National Bank will consecutively cut rates by 25 basis points. Nomura and Deutsche Bank expect that negative interest rates may be reintroduced. Société Générale believes that the threshold for restoring negative rates is high.
