As the crypto market braces for U.S. President Donald Trump’s highly anticipated “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on Wednesday, Ether (ETH) is flashing early signs of downtrend exhaustion, offering a potential glimmer of hope for a broader market rebound.
Trump Tariffs Could Be the Market's Tipping Point
President Trump is expected to unveil a sweeping package of reciprocal tariffs aimed at countering what he describes as unfair trade practices by global partners. The move, part of his administration’s nationalist economic agenda, has already rattled stock futures and risk assets—including crypto.
However, if the announced measures are less severe than markets expect, Ether may be primed to lead the next leg of the crypto rally after months of underperformance relative to Bitcoin.
Technical Analysis: Signs of ETH Downtrend Fatigue
Seller Fatigue at Critical Support
ETH fell sharply last week but found strong support around $1,755, its 16-month low first hit on March 11. The failure to break this level suggests bears are losing steam, creating the foundation for a potential bullish reversal.
Double Bottom Pattern Teases Breakout
ETH has since rebounded to $1,880, forming a potential double bottom. A confirmed breakout above the neckline resistance at $2,104 would validate the reversal and point to a price target of $2,400, based on the measured move technique.
Momentum Divergence Supports Bullish Bias
Despite revisiting March lows, the 50-day SMA histogram divergence shows a higher low in momentum. This bullish divergence indicates that while price dipped, selling momentum did not, suggesting growing buyer interest.
Three-Line Break Flips Bullish
The three-line break chart, which captures trend changes more clearly than traditional candlesticks, has flipped bullish for the first time since early March, adding weight to the reversal thesis. While the last signal turned out to be a bear trap, the current setup appears more robust due to converging bullish indicators.
Macro Risks Remain Front and Center
Despite the promising technical backdrop, macro risk remains the wild card. If Trump’s tariff package triggers a broad-based risk-off sentiment, all bullish signals on ETH’s chart could quickly unravel. Analysts warn that broad financial market volatility could spill into crypto, dragging ETH back below key support levels.
Bottom Line
Ether may be poised for a technical breakout, but Wednesday’s tariff announcement will be pivotal. A less aggressive trade policy could reignite confidence across risk assets and help ETH reclaim leadership in the crypto market. However, a hawkish shock from Washington could deepen losses and nullify the emerging bullish trend.
Watch Zones:
Bullish confirmation: Break above $2,104
Target: $2,400
Bearish invalidation: Drop below $1,755 support
