Solana’s (SOL) price could plunge below $100 if bulls fail to defend the key support range of $125 to $110, following the formation of a death cross on the daily chart. This technical signal suggests that SOL could correct by 30%, with a downside target around $80.

Death Cross Confirms Bearish Momentum for Solana

On March 12, Solana’s 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) completed a death cross, a bearish indicator that typically precedes further downside. A similar event occurred with Solana’s exponential moving averages (EMAs) in February, leading to a 17% decline from $137 to $122.

Key observations:

  • A double death cross (SMA + EMA) suggests increased downside risk.

  • SOL’s historical death crosses (2022 & 2024) have resulted in steep corrections, with the 2022 event leading to a 90% drop amid the FTX collapse.

  • Solana’s network revenue has declined 93% since January, falling from $238 million to $32 million, signaling lower on-chain activity post-memecoin mania.

Can Solana Bulls Defend $125?

SOL’s $125 to $110 support zone has held six times since March 2024, preventing a further breakdown. However, if SOL closes below $125 on a weekly timeframe, it could confirm bearish market weakness, opening the door for:
- First downside target: $110 (key historical support).
- Final target: $80 (aligns with 0.5 Fibonacci retracement).

A bullish divergence on the 1-day and 4-hour RSI provides some hope for stabilization if SOL avoids setting a lower low. A recovery above $125 could invalidate the bearish setup, potentially setting a local bottom at $112.

Solana’s Price Outlook: Break or Breakdown?

- Bullish Scenario: If Solana defends $125 and confirms RSI divergence, it could reverse upward, maintaining support and targeting a rebound above $135.
- Bearish Scenario: A confirmed weekly close below $125 increases the likelihood of a 30% correction toward $80.

With macroeconomic headwinds and fading network activity, Solana traders must watch the $125 level closely—a breakdown could send SOL to double-digit prices for the first time in over a year, according to Cointelegraph.