After a 7% plunge, can TREE 'grow' a rebound? The battle at the life-and-death line of 0.40→0.42!
In the past 24 hours, TREE has dropped another 6.5%, with contract holdings evaporating by 103 million in 7 days. The current price of 0.4008 is approaching the lower Bollinger Band at 0.390. POC is locked at 0.420, while a sell wall of 8 million USDT is stacked above at 1.0 and 1.27; the high volume zone below 0.392-0.401 serves as the last buffer. Short-term funding rates remain positive, but buy orders are 1.8 times higher than sell orders; a 'fake tumble' or 'real breakdown' is about to be revealed.
Key interval structure
• Value anchor: POC 0.420 (8.88 billion in transactions), a balance point between bulls and bears.
• High volume buffer: HVN 0.395-0.414 (buyers dominate, UpVol 60%+), the first support of the day.
• Low volume gap: 0.370-0.388 (LVN), if broken with volume, it will directly test 0.350.
• 70% transaction area: 0.304-0.910, the current price is at the lower edge, short-term oversold.
Momentum verification
• In the 0.395-0.401 area, UpVol is 61%, short-term bulls are still supporting.
• Holdings decreased by 7.4% in 24 hours, with a net outflow of 5.6 million USDT from 4h-8h, and the main force has not returned.
• The lower Bollinger Band at 0.390 and MA200 at 0.423 form a 'sandwich'; breaking in either direction will accelerate.
Trading strategy
Aggressive: Buy on a pullback to 0.395±0.002, stop loss at 0.388 (below HVN), target at 0.420 (POC), risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.1.
Conservative: Wait for volume to return above 0.414 for confirmation, stop loss at 0.408, target at 0.446, risk-reward ratio ≈ 4.5.
Cautious: If it loses 0.388, short on a rebound to 0.392, stop loss at 0.398, target at 0.370, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.7.
Risk warning
• Continuous net outflow of spot for 5 days; if it breaks 0.388 again during the day, the strategy becomes invalid.
• If the sell wall at 1.0 and 1.27 is actively consumed, short covering will trigger a rapid rebound.
LP market-making suggestion
Concentrate orders in the 0.395-0.420 range, using HVN high turnover + positive funding rates to collect fees; if the price drops below 0.388, immediately withdraw orders to prevent one-sided踩踏.
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