jpmorgan

According to the latest forecast from JPMorgan, the U.S. tariff policy may lead to a painful scenario of stagflation — a toxic mix of stagnant growth and persistent inflation. This warning comes as the bank revises its 2025 U.S. GDP growth estimate down from 2% to just 1.3%.
In its semiannual economic outlook, JPMorgan stated that there is now a 40% probability of a recession in the second half of next year.

Economy Suffers Between Rising Prices and Slowing Growth
Stagflation — a nightmare scenario reminiscent of the 1970s — involves high inflation, weak growth, and rising unemployment, and is notoriously difficult to address using traditional policy tools. JPMorgan now sees this risk rising due to new tariffs introduced in April, which are likely to drive up both import and domestic production costs.
“The stagflationary impulse from higher tariffs was a key driver in our downward revision of the GDP forecast,” the bank stated. “We continue to see elevated recession risks.”

Bond Markets React – and the Fed May Delay Rate Cuts
Fears surrounding the impact of tariffs are already being reflected in bond markets. Yields on 2-year U.S. Treasuries have risen to 3.8%, while 10-year yields are nearing 4.3%, indicating investors are reassessing inflation and interest rate expectations.
Despite this volatility, JPMorgan expects some stabilization by year-end:

🔹 2-year bonds: yields to drop to 3.5%

🔹 10-year bonds: expected to decline to 4.35%
However, the bank also warns of rising term premiums — the extra yield investors demand for holding long-term debt — which could increase by 40 to 50 basis points due to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and waning interest from foreign buyers, including China, Japan, and the Federal Reserve itself.

Rate Cuts? Not Until December — and Slowly
While some market participants are betting on the Federal Reserve beginning rate cuts later this year, JPMorgan remains cautious. With inflation still “sticky”, and tariffs adding upward pressure, the Fed is unlikely to act before December 2025.
🔸 The bank expects a gradual rate-cutting cycle of 100 basis points, extending into spring 2026.
Should the economy weaken more than anticipated, the Fed may need to respond more aggressively. But for now, JPMorgan is preparing for a measured, step-by-step recalibration.

Falling Dollar, Stronger Emerging Currencies? Likely
JPMorgan also offered a bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar, arguing that the greenback could weaken as foreign economies outperform the U.S. thanks to pro-growth international policies. Meanwhile, the U.S. leans toward protectionism and potentially isolationist policies, which may weigh on domestic expansion.
⚠️ The bank warns that the sheer size of the U.S. bond market may become harder to sustain if foreign buyers continue to pull back from U.S. assets.

Tech and AI Keep Equities Afloat
Not all outlooks are grim, though. JPMorgan remains bullish on U.S. equities, citing several reasons for optimism:

🔹 Strong consumer spending

🔹 Robust tech sector earnings

🔹 Persistent investor demand for stocks
Unless there’s a major geopolitical or political shock, JPMorgan believes that technology and AI-driven growth will continue to support equity markets.

#JPMorgan , #Inflation , #US , #economy , #worldnews

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On June 26, JPMorgan Chase released its mid-year economic outlook report, warning that the US economy could fall into a state of stagflation due to negative impacts from tariff policies. The bank's economists estimate that the probability of the US economy entering recession in the second half of 2025 is about 40%, lower than their previous forecast of 50% in April.
According to JPMorgan, the current tariff policy may slow global economic growth while putting pressure back on inflation in the US. The US GDP growth for 2025 is currently forecast to reach only 1.3%, significantly lower than the 2% forecast at the beginning of the year. JPMorgan stated: 'The impact of stagflation due to tariffs is the reason we lowered our GDP growth forecast for this year.'

JPMorgan Chase, one of the largest banks in the world, has officially confirmed the launch of the pilot project for the JPMD token on the Base blockchain, owned by Coinbase. This deposit token, which represents dollar deposits in the bank, is the first step towards integrating traditional finance with public blockchains. Unlike stablecoins, JPMD is backed by real deposits, ensuring regulatory compliance and the potential for interest accrual.

An important step has just taken place in the relationship between traditional finance and the cryptocurrency market: JPMorgan – one of the largest banks in the U.S. – has held a direct meeting with the SEC to discuss transitioning financial activities to blockchain.

The meeting included the participation of the Crypto Task Force team from the SEC and three senior leaders from #JPMorgan , including Scott Lucas, Justin Cohen, and Aaron Iovine, highlighting this bank's seriousness in shaping the future of on-chain finance.

JPMorgan Chase is stepping further into the digital asset space with a pilot program for #JMPD , a blockchain-based token representing U.S. dollar deposits. The financial giant is running the trial on a major Ethereum Layer-2 network, signaling a shift toward integrating traditional banking with decentralized finance.
A New Approach to Tokenized Deposits
Unlike conventional stablecoins—which typically rely on reserves like Treasury bonds—JPMD is backed 1:1 by actual bank deposits held at regulated institutions. According to insiders, this model provides greater stability and regulatory compliance while enabling faster, more transparent transactions.
Key Features of the Pilot
- Institutional Focus: The test involves select clients moving JPMD tokens across the blockchain for cross-border settlements.
- 24/7 Liquidity: Participants gain near-instant access to funds outside traditional banking hours.
- Lower Costs: Transactions on the L2 network reduce fees compared to legacy systems.
Why This Matters
JPMorgan has long experimented with blockchain, previously using a private network for internal settlements. By deploying JPMD on a public Ethereum-compatible chain, the bank is opening doors for broader institutional adoption of blockchain-based finance. If successful, this could encourage other major banks to follow suit with similar deposit tokens.
Regulatory Hurdles and Future Plans
The pilot will run for several months before potential expansion. Regulatory clarity remains a key factor, but industry experts suggest that compliant deposit tokens like JPMD could eventually challenge third-party stablecoins in institutional markets.
As blockchain adoption grows, will traditional banks dominate the next wave of tokenized finance? The answer may depend on experiments like this one.
For more insights on digital assets and banking innovation, follow our updates.
#JPMorgan #BankingOnBlockchain #StablecoinRevolution
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J.P. Morgan is launching JPMD, a USD deposit token for institutional clients on Base, marking the first of its kind on a public blockchain for secure, 24/7 money movement. This isn't about adopting cryptocurrency. Banks are rebuilding settlement rails in public. JPMorgan Chase filed a trademark application on June 15th, which has already given hints to investors for the stablecoin project. JPMD's entry into the stablecoin space challenges existing players like Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC), which currently dominate the market. 
This is massive for crypto as JPMorgan's entry into the deposit token market with JPMD, particularly on platforms like Base, signifies a significant endorsement from traditional finance for digital assets. This move enhances credit and liquidity channels, potentially transforming cash management and settlements. Additionally, JPMD can provide a foundation for cross-bank collaboration and stablecoin competition, offering regulated alternatives.

Source X
Is Base Network Ready for JPMorgan’s Big Move?
The introduction of a deposit token by JPMorgan to Base gives TradFi access to go on-chain, which might open up new credit and liquidity channels for financial companies. It is an Ethereum Layer 2 platform, gaining popularity due to its scalability and institutional-grade infrastructure. Its partnership with Coinbase, which supports the deposit token, increases the platform's profile for enterprise use cases beyond retail DeFi or memecoins. This partnership brings trust, liquidity, and volumes to the platform, potentially increasing TVL and developer interest in real-world asset tokenization projects. Additionally, Coinbase's integration reduces barriers to entry for institutions, making its security, speed, and custodial offerings an attractive entry point.
JP Morgan is shifting funds onchain for this reason:
In contrast to stablecoins, the JPMD token offers prospective benefits like interest and deposit insurance by directly representing claims on commercial bank accounts. 
Reduced fees due to cheaper blockspace.Real-time auditability for regulators and risk teams.Programmable flows for split, stream, or self-refund.Allows idle cash to earn or collateralize upon wallet hit.Tradfi seeks the same advantages as crypto.Instant market reach with a browser and internet link.24/7 money movement, reducing settlement times.
Will JPMD drive massive institutional flows onto Base 
This indicates a number of significant changes in institutional finance as well as the larger ecosystem of digital assets. The collaboration will legitimize real-world asset tokenization on public blockchains, increasing transparency and enabling programmable finance. It also drives regulatory clarity, normalizing tokenized settlement, and attracting mainstream attention, driving fintechs, banks, and DeFi projects to collaborate on compliance, user experience, and global accessibility. JPMorgan's move to integrate digital assets into banking could enhance crypto integration, making it safer for larger institutions. This could also improve credit and liquidity channels by using JPMD as collateral, potentially alongside assets like spot Bitcoin ETFs. Additionally, JPMorgan's deposit tokens could challenge crypto-native stablecoins by offering regulated, institutionally-backed alternatives, potentially transforming cash management, collateral transfers, and intra-bank settlements.
The financial sector is undergoing a change as a result of this move. Due to worries about the security and use of public blockchains, banks have historically mostly refrained from introducing products on them. However, under President Donald Trump's second term, there has been a regulatory thaw towards cryptocurrency startups in the US.

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#JPMorgan #JPMD #stablecoin #TradFi