The sentiment around major crypto exchanges is beginning to diverge sharply, as
#CitiGroup takes a cautious stance on
#Gemini while turning more optimistic on Bullish. The move reflects a broader shift in how traditional finance is evaluating crypto platforms — not just on hype and user growth, but on regulatory traction and sustainable engagement.
Citigroup’s analyst team, led by Peter Christiansen, reaffirmed its neutral/high-risk rating on Gemini but trimmed the price target from $26 to $23, signaling slower-than-expected growth on the exchange side. Despite a strong marketing push and impressive sign-up numbers for the Gemini Card, Citi says that actual trading activity has failed to keep pace with the excitement.
The data tells the story. October’s trading volumes at Gemini were only slightly above September levels, and notably weaker than July and August — a letdown considering the buzz around the
$XRP co-branded card that launched before the exchange’s IPO. Christiansen highlighted that Gemini’s user engagement and transaction depth remain a “waiting game,” suggesting that its expansion strategy may need more time to translate into meaningful market share.
Gemini’s stock still managed to rise 5.5% to $20.60 on Friday, showing that investors haven’t given up on the company’s long-term potential. But Citi’s latest adjustment places Gemini at roughly a 45% discount to Coinbase’s projected 2027 enterprise value-to-sales ratio — a gap that underscores investor caution around its competitive positioning.
On the other side of the spectrum, Citigroup raised its price target for Bullish ( $BLSH ) from $70 to $77, maintaining a buy/high-risk rating. That new target implies nearly 40% upside from its current price of $55.62. The upgrade comes as Bullish gains momentum following its New York BitLicense approval — a significant regulatory milestone that opens the door for broader institutional participation.
Citi’s note highlighted that Bullish’s “expanding institutional access” positions it strongly for the next phase of crypto adoption, especially as traditional finance continues to warm up to digital asset markets. The approval in New York, one of the toughest regulatory environments in the U.S., gives Bullish an edge at a time when many exchanges are still navigating compliance hurdles.
Christiansen’s team pointed out that Bullish is now well-placed to benefit from improving regulatory clarity and the increasing comfort of legacy institutions entering the crypto space. The exchange’s steady growth and focus on compliance-driven expansion have made it a standout among newer entrants, with Citigroup framing it as one of the key platforms driving the next wave of mainstream adoption.
The contrast between Gemini and Bullish is telling. Gemini’s push for consumer engagement through retail cards and app integrations is ambitious but slow to convert into active trading growth. Bullish, meanwhile, is capturing institutional attention at a moment when regulatory trust is becoming a defining advantage in the crypto market.
With both exchanges taking very different routes to scale — Gemini leaning on consumer fintech-style growth and Bullish on regulatory legitimacy — the market’s next moves will depend heavily on how quickly each strategy can deliver measurable traction.
For now, Wall Street seems to have made its call: Gemini may need more time to prove its exchange can match its marketing, while Bullish is emerging as the quiet contender gaining real ground in the eyes of traditional finance.