cbrt

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has released its first Inflation Report of 2025, revising its inflation forecast from 21% to 24%. Beyond this expected adjustment, the report reveals significant hidden wealth held outside the formal financial system. In times of economic uncertainty, Turkish citizens have long favored alternative savings most notably gold and real estate. The report estimates households’ financial assets at $505 billion, while rental real estate is valued at $701 billion. Even more striking is the $311 billion in gold savings kept off the formal books.
Historically, gold has been a safe-haven and a hedge against inflation in Turkey. The CBRT calculated these gold reserves by analyzing import, export, and production data, showing a steady rise through the third quarter of 2024. Although individual investors use gold to shield themselves from economic volatility, its exclusion from the financial system means that a substantial pool of capital remains idle capital that could otherwise drive investment, credit expansion, and overall economic growth. This hidden wealth, therefore, undermines the effectiveness of monetary policy and complicates efforts to control inflation and stabilize the economy.
The report also underscores the dominance of real estate investments, particularly in the rental market. With rental property values now at $701 billion, the continual rise in housing prices further entrenches real estate as a primary means of wealth preservation. Unlike financial assets, real estate remains largely detached from direct monetary controls, keeping a significant share of wealth outside conventional investment channels and limiting policymakers’ ability to influence capital flows.
Although asset valuation effects have weakened since mid-2024 suggesting easing inflationary pressures the persistent accumulation of wealth in gold and real estate poses a long-term challenge. Unless household preferences shift toward financial instruments, this hidden economy may continue to hinder Turkey’s disinflation process and complicate economic stabilization. Integrating these assets into the formal financial system is essential for ensuring that Turkey's vast wealth actively supports sustainable economic growth rather than merely serving as a personal store of value.

#GOLD #Turkey #türkiye #Turkish #cbrt

As markets hold their breath for today's 11:00 UTC announcement from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), analysts widely anticipate a reduction in interest rates from 50% to 48.50%. This decision carries significant implications for various financial instruments and market dynamics.
Market Impact Analysis
The expected interest rate cut could create ripples across multiple asset classes. While the Turkish Lira may experience some downward pressure, experts suggest this impact will likely be contained. The currency markets have largely priced in this anticipated move, limiting potential volatility.
In the precious metals sector, gold presents an intriguing scenario. The international gold market faces a crucial technical barrier at $2,640 per ounce. Market technicians emphasize that failure to breach this level could trigger a retreat toward the $2,500 support zone, potentially influencing local gram gold prices in Turkey.
Borsa Istanbul's Trajectory
The Turkish stock market tells an interesting story, with the BIST 100 Index showing renewed momentum after finding support near 9,600. Market sentiment appears optimistic regarding the expected rate cut, potentially propelling the index toward the psychologically important 10,000 mark, with some analysts projecting movement up to 10,250.
However, historical patterns warrant caution. The 10,250 level has proved to be a formidable resistance point, previously triggering significant selling pressure. Traders and investors should remain vigilant as this technical threshold approaches again.
Investment Outlook
The success of both gold and equities hinges on their ability to overcome key technical barriers. Should ounce gold fail to surpass its resistance or the BIST 100 struggle at 10,250, investors might face disappointing returns. Market participants often refer to such sideways-trading assets as "potatoes" in local market parlance, reflecting their stagnant performance potential.
Economic Implications
Today's rate decision transcends mere market movements, offering valuable insights into Turkey's economic trajectory. Currency traders should maintain focus on USD/TRY movements, while equity investors would do well to monitor the BIST 100's behavior around critical resistance levels.
The decision represents more than just a number; it reflects the central bank's assessment of economic conditions and its strategy for maintaining financial stability. In this context, careful observation of market reactions will provide crucial insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors navigating Turkey's financial landscape.
As markets await this pivotal announcement, one thing remains clear: the outcome will likely influence investment strategies across multiple asset classes for the foreseeable future.

#BorsaIstanbul #BIST100 #CBRT #TCMB #Turkish