aladdin

Bitcoin needs to far exceed $86,300 to regain short-term optimism about its price.

This is because this is a key area known as the alpha price, and these levels have historically been both support and resistance.

Bitcoin may slightly break through and then fall again—a potential bull trap.

The lower support levels are $73,900 and $64,700, and if Bitcoin weakens again, these areas may be reconsidered in the future.

In other words, due to the current uncertainty and the strong resistance close to $86,000, we believe the best course of action now is to wait. Of course, if you are aggressive, you might consider shorting a bit.

Patience is the key to successful trading.

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‪Don’t be a linear thinker in an exponential world — you won’t make it.‬

‪$BTC 突破的目标可以投射在线性尺度（红色）或对数尺度（黑色）上。‬

‪对于这个牛市周期，10 万美元是线性目标，是抛物线阶段的开始。‬

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$BTC is approaching liquidity again.

According to the histogram, we see some outliers:
- The proportion of real retail long positions is still quite low (11 percentage points). If it falls (rises) back to the mean/median, it would be bearish.

- Order book: The buy-sell ratio at 5% depth is at 20 percentage points, the buy-sell ratio at 2% depth is at 12 percentage points, and the total order book at 20% depth (buy + sell) is at 23 percentage points. Both buy-sell ratios are negative, and if both are below -0.3, the bearish trend is quite obvious.

- OI has not changed much in the past 24 hours and is close to the median of the past 90 days.

- The percentage of long liquidation levels (by quantity) is quite high. Currently, 77% of all liquidity levels are long (at the 90th percentile). By size, 82% are long, at the 92nd percentile. This again indicates a bearish signal -- as the price may drop soon to catch up to that level.

The liquid cluster above may act as a magnet, but be sure to remain cautious when reaching there.

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