WinrateLogic

📊 MARKET INSIGHT: WINRATE, FGI & TAKE-PROFIT PSYCHOLOGY

📈 Daily winrate data from a trading community using R:R risk management reveals a clear relationship between market sentiment (measured via the Fear & Greed Index – FGI) and the likelihood of hitting take-profit (TP) targets. While all traders use a fixed stop-loss of 1R, their TP levels vary — some aim for 1R, others go for 3R, 5R, or even more. As a result, winrate doesn't reflect profitability but rather the probability of reaching TP, regardless of size.

📊 When market days are grouped by sentiment, the statistics show:

🔴 Extreme Fear: Average winrate 44.33% across 15 days

🟠 Fear: Average winrate 45.19% across 95 days

⚪ Neutral: Average winrate 44.57% across 61 days

🟢 Greed: Average winrate 44.62% across 150 days

🟢🟢 Extreme Greed: Average winrate 42.42% across 60 days

📌 The differences may appear small, but the trend is consistent: fear-driven markets tend to yield higher TP success rates, while euphoric markets produce the lowest. This shift isn’t purely due to market conditions — it’s also behavioral.

🚀 In high-FGI conditions, traders often extend their TP targets, convinced that prices will “keep flying.” Ironically, these are the moments when markets tend to stall, reverse, or fake out — leaving many trades unfinished. In contrast, during fear, TP targets are more conservative, and markets often offer clean technical reactions, improving the odds of a completed trade.

🧠 Statistically speaking, winrate doesn’t tell us who’s making the most money — but it does tell us how generous or stingy the market is with follow-through. When viewed through this lens, numbers reveal what sentiment often hides: the more traders expect, the less accurate they tend to become.

#MarketPsychology #TradingStatistics #WinrateLogic