A pivotal moment for global markets is set to unfold tonight at dawn.
According to the latest consensus among analysts, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to announce another interest rate cut during its upcoming policy meeting a move that could have major implications for currencies, stocks, and digital assets worldwide.
đ Event Schedule (Beijing Time October 30)
02:00 AM: FOMC meeting concludes and the interest rate decision is announced.
02:30 AM: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference to discuss policy outlook.
đ Market Expectations and Background
Markets widely anticipate that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%â4.00%.
If confirmed, this will mark the second rate cut in 2025, reinforcing the Fedâs recent pivot toward monetary easing.
Key Drivers Behind the Decision
Easing Inflation Pressure
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% year-on-year in September, slightly below expectations.
This moderation gives the Fed more flexibility to stimulate the economy without reigniting inflation.
Weakening Labor Market
U.S. job creation has slowed sharply, with only 22,000 jobs added in August 2025 one of the weakest prints since 2020.
This trend supports the Fedâs argument for additional monetary support.
Government Shutdown & Data Gaps
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has disrupted key economic data releases, leaving policymakers operating in a âdata fog.â
In such an environment, the Fed is more likely to act preemptively to sustain employment and stability.
đ Key Focus Areas Beyond the Rate Cut
While the rate reduction is largely priced in, investors should closely monitor two additional elements that could spark market volatility:
Quantitative Tightening (QT) Outlook
Analysts speculate that the Fed may announce an early end to its QT program, effectively halting balance sheet reductions.
If confirmed, this would be viewed as an extra dovish signal, potentially boosting equities, bonds, and risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Powellâs Tone and Guidance
With no new economic projections (âdot plotâ) scheduled for this meeting, Powellâs commentary becomes the central focus.
Markets will analyze his language for hints about Decemberâs policy direction â particularly whether another rate cut could follow.
đ Summary
All eyes are on the Federal Reserveâs decision at 02:00 AM Beijing time.
A 25 bps rate cut appears almost certain, but the real impact will depend on Powellâs tone and any signals about ending quantitative tightening.
These details could shape the next major move across global markets from the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields to stocks, gold, and crypto assets.
Stay alert: tonightâs policy shift could redefine risk sentiment heading into November.
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