StockMArket

Hopes for a thaw in the U.S.-China trade conflict sent a wave of optimism through global markets on Friday. Asian stocks and U.S. futures gained after Beijing signaled it was open to discussing tariffs, easing investor concerns triggered by weak earnings reports from Apple and Amazon.

🔹 Beijing Opens the Door, Wall Street Reacts
China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that the U.S. had “repeatedly expressed a willingness to negotiate on tariffs,” and that Beijing is ready to talk. This comment quickly lifted market sentiment—S&P 500 futures rose by 0.6%, and Nasdaq futures added 0.3%, reversing early losses caused by Apple’s warning that tariffs could raise its costs by $900 million this quarter.
Apple also said it would slow its share buyback program, without providing a clear financial target. Amazon added to the gloom with disappointing earnings. However, earlier in the week, strong results from Microsoft and Meta Platforms provided some relief, suggesting that not all tech giants are equally affected.

🔹 Asian Markets in the Green
Improved sentiment extended across Asia:
🔹 Japan’s Nikkei index rose 0.70%

🔹 Taiwan’s benchmark jumped 2%

🔹 MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index (ex-Japan) gained 0.4%
Despite the gains, traders remained cautious amid the shifting White House trade strategy. Meanwhile, fresh economic data stoked further worries: the U.S. economy shrank in Q1 for the first time in three years, and China’s industrial output fell at its fastest pace in 16 months.

💱 Yen Weakens, Dollar Strengthens
In currency markets, the Japanese yen fell to 145.62 per dollar, its weakest level since April 10. The drop came a day after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged and lowered its growth outlook in light of U.S. tariffs.
The weaker yen helped the U.S. dollar post its best week since February. The dollar index hovered near 100.14, as traders awaited April's non-farm payroll data. Reuters forecasts expect 130,000 new jobs, down from March’s 228,000 gain.

🗣️ Japan Reminds It Has Leverage
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato told reporters that Japan holds over $1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, which could be used as leverage in trade negotiations. His comments came as Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington for a second round of bilateral talks.

🛢️ Mixed Commodities: Gold Drops, Oil Climbs
Commodities delivered mixed signals:
🔹 Gold fell to $3,234.90 per ounce, heading for its weakest week in two months as demand for safe havens cooled.

🔹 Oil moved higher—Brent crude rose 0.56%, while WTI crude climbed 0.6%, following warnings from Donald Trump about possible secondary sanctions on Iran.

🧩 Summary:
Signals of a possible easing in U.S.-China tariff tensions sent global markets upward. Still, uncertainty remains high, with ongoing fears of a global slowdown and mixed performance from major tech companies.

#stockmarket , #globaleconomy , #Geopolitics , #WallStreetNews , #worldnews

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Tesla has become the first stock in the elite Magnificent 7 group (which includes tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia) to climb back above its 200-day moving average in 2025. That’s a significant technical milestone — but beneath the surface, there’s little to celebrate.

A Rebound That Defies Fundamentals?
Tesla’s shares have plunged nearly 30% since the beginning of the year, and the recent recovery seems to be fueled more by hope and hype than solid performance.
Analysts at Redburn Atlantic are warning investors to sell the stock, citing a challenging year ahead — with falling revenues, weaker cash flow, and tariff risks likely to weigh the company down.

Facing Pressure from All Sides
🔹 Pricing pressure from cheaper EV competitors

🔹 Tariffs between the U.S.–Mexico and China–EU disrupting exports

🔹 Potential loss of U.S. federal EV tax credits, which could crush already shaky demand

🔹 Lack of meaningful innovation — no major new product since 2019
Redburn predicts that Tesla’s earnings and free cash flow could drop 10% below Wall Street estimates. Their price target? $160 per share, representing a potential 44% drop from the recent close of $285.88.

Most of Tesla’s Value Is Built on Hype
Tesla is currently valued at around $900 billion, but according to experts, only about $100 to $180 billion of that reflects the actual auto business.
The rest?

It’s based on dreams and promises made by Elon Musk — like robotaxis, humanoid robots, and full self-driving software. None of these have turned into real businesses or profits yet.
Even Tesla’s much-hyped Full Self-Driving system remains in endless beta testing with no clear release date. Meanwhile, Tesla’s board appears too weak or loyal to question Musk’s timelines or demand accountability.

Tesla Is Wildly Overvalued — and Investors Are Ignoring the Math
From a valuation standpoint, Tesla looks severely overpriced. With a P/E ratio of 164 and a P/S ratio of 9.5, investors are essentially paying $10 for every $1 of revenue — and the company shows no clear growth trajectory.
As former Sun Microsystems CEO Scott McNealy once said:

“If I’m paying 10 times sales, you better be giving me 100% of your revenue as dividends for 10 straight years.”

That math hasn’t changed — but investors seem to ignore it.

Aging Lineup, Overpriced Cybertruck, and Vaporware Robots
🔹 Model 3 and Model Y are both over five years old and starting to feel outdated

🔹 Cybertruck is expensive, overhyped, and production is struggling

🔹 No concrete details about the upcoming affordable model — no name, no specs, no timeline

🔹 Elon’s robots? Still just a concept
Customers still worry about range anxiety, charging access, and unmet promises. Meanwhile, traditional automakers are catching up fast with more reliable EVs.

Bottom Line: Tesla Survives on Image, Not Output
Technically, the stock is rebounding — but fundamentally, the company is weakening. Right now, investors are buying Elon Musk’s brand, not Tesla’s performance.
And while the vision remains ambitious, the market’s patience is wearing thin. Without real progress soon, the Tesla dream may no longer be enough.

#Tesla , #stockmarket , #ElonMusk , #WallStreet , #MarketAnalysis

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Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, currently estimates a 56% probability that the U.S. will experience an economic recession in 2025 . This uptick in recession odds aligns with growing concerns among investors and economists, particularly following President Donald Trump’s recent implementation of sweeping tariffs.

Key Factors Influencing Recession Predictions
• Aggressive Tariff Policies: In early April 2025, President Trump announced extensive tariffs affecting a broad range of imports. These measures have intensified trade tensions, especially with China, and have been cited as a primary catalyst for market volatility .
• Market Volatility: Following the tariff announcements, major U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, experienced significant declines, marking one of the most substantial market downturns since 2020 .
• Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators: Recent data indicates a decline in consumer confidence and a contraction in manufacturing activity. The March Purchasing Managers’ Index showed prices increasing at their fastest rate since mid-2022, coupled with decreasing factory activity .

Broader Market Sentiment

The heightened recession probability on Polymarket reflects a broader sentiment of economic uncertainty. Investors are closely monitoring policy developments, especially any potential adjustments to the newly imposed tariffs, which could significantly influence economic trajectories.
#PolymarketRecessionPredictio #Recession2025 #USmarket #EconOutlook2025 #stockmarket