Sasha

Attributing the poor performance of tokens launched on the TON ecosystem following airdrops solely or primarily to Nigerians and Indians would be an oversimplification. While their significant participation influences token dynamics, the broader context of airdrop design, market behavior, and TON’s ecosystem maturity suggests a more complex picture. Let’s break this down based on data and trends analyzed earlier, and I’ll offer a reasoned conclusion.

Evidence of Poor Performance
Tokens launched via TON airdrops often exhibit a pattern of initial hype followed by sharp declines:
Notcoin (NOT): Launched May 2024, peaked at $0.028 (market cap ~$2.8 billion), then dropped to $0.015 within weeks, stabilizing around $0.012-$0.015 by late 2024—a 50%+ decline from peak.
TapSwap: Post-airdrop in 2025, its token faced similar sell-off pressure, with anecdotal X reports noting low per-user value and rapid depreciation.
General Trend: TON-based game tokens often see high initial trading volume (e.g., Notcoin hit $1 billion daily volume at launch) but struggle to maintain value, reflecting airdrop-driven speculation rather than sustained utility.
This “pump-and-dump” behavior is common in airdrop-heavy ecosystems, not unique to TON, but amplified by its scale and Telegram integration.
Role of Nigerians and Indians
Nigerians and Indians, estimated at 12-17% of TON’s airdrop participants (5-7 million users), contribute significantly to this dynamic:
High Participation and Selling Pressure:
Economic Incentives: In Nigeria, economic instability (e.g., naira depreciation) drives users to cash out quickly, converting airdropped tokens to stablecoins or fiat. Indian users, while more diverse in intent, also include millions of casual participants who sell post-airdrop for small gains.
Volume Impact: With potentially 1-2.5 million Nigerians and 5-6 million Indians per major airdrop, their collective selling—say, 10-15 billion tokens from a 100-billion-token drop—can flood exchanges like Ston.fi or centralized platforms, depressing prices. For Notcoin, X posts from Nigerian users in May 2024 boasted “dumping NOT for USDT,” mirroring Indian crypto group chatter.
Bot Activity:
Both regions have documented bot-driven farming (e.g., Nigerian TapSwap scripts, Indian Notcoin automation tools on Telegram). This inflates participant numbers, dilutes rewards, and increases sellable supply, exacerbating downward pressure when tokens hit markets.
Short-Term Engagement:
Sentiment on X and Telegram suggests many Nigerians and Indians treat TON airdrops as “hustles” or “side gigs” rather than long-term investments. Post-airdrop, participation drops (e.g., Hamster Kombat’s 60 million players dwindled after hype), reducing buying support and leaving tokens vulnerable to sell-offs.
Counterarguments: Broader Ecosystem Factors
Blaming Nigerians and Indians alone overlooks systemic issues in TON’s airdrop model and token economics:
Airdrop Design:
Massive Supply: Distributing 80%+ of a token’s supply (e.g., Notcoin’s 80 billion NOT) to millions ensures high circulation from day one, inherently risking oversupply and price drops regardless of who sells.
Lack of Lockups: Unlike some ecosystems (e.g., Solana’s early airdrops with vesting), TON projects rarely impose lockup periods, enabling immediate dumping by all participants, not just Nigerians or Indians.
Utility Gap: Most TON tokens (e.g., NOT, TapSwap) lack robust utility beyond speculative trading or basic game mechanics, failing to incentivize holding—a structural flaw, not a demographic one.

Global Behavior:
Selling post-airdrop is a universal crypto phenomenon, seen in Ethereum’s ICO era or Binance Launchpool drops. Participants from Russia, Southeast Asia, and other regions (the remaining 83-88% of TON users) also dump tokens, as evidenced by Notcoin’s $1 billion volume spike across exchanges like Binance, not just TON-native DEXs.
Market Maturity:
TON’s ecosystem, while growing (TVL $757 million, 42 million wallets by late 2024), is still nascent compared to Ethereum or Solana. Its reliance on tap-to-earn games rather than DeFi or infrastructure limits intrinsic demand, making tokens more susceptible to sell-offs from all users, not just specific groups.
Comparative Analysis
Nigerians/Indians vs. Others: If Nigerians and Indians sell 10-15% of an airdrop’s supply, the other 83-88% of participants (41-44 million in a 50-million-user drop) control 85-90 billion tokens. Even if their sell rate is lower (e.g., 20% vs. 50% for Nigerians/Indians), their sheer volume dwarfs the impact. For Notcoin, global sell pressure, not just regional, drove the 50% drop.
Economic Context: Selling aligns with rational behavior given local conditions—Nigeria’s inflation hit 33% in 2024, and India’s crypto users often seek quick arbitrage. Similar urgency exists elsewhere (e.g., Venezuela, Southeast Asia), suggesting a universal driver amplified by TON’s accessibility.
Conclusion
Nigerians and Indians are not responsible for the poor performance of TON tokens post-airdrop in a causative sense; they are contributors within a broader ecosystem dynamic. Their large-scale participation (12-17% of users) and tendency to sell quickly—driven by economic necessity and airdrop farming culture—add significant downward pressure, likely accounting for 10-20% of initial sell-offs in volume terms. However, the primary culprits are structural: oversized airdrops, lack of holding incentives, and weak token utility, which affect all participants globally. Data suggests the remaining 83-88% of users, including bot farms and speculators worldwide, collectively outweigh their impact.
Thus, while Nigerians and Indians amplify token depreciation due to their numbers and behavior, they are not the root caus#e. TON’s ecosystem would likely see similar post-airdrop slumps without their involvement, as seen in other chains with mass distributions (e.g., Aptos’ 2022 airdrop crash). To improve performance, TON projects need tighter supply controls, lockups, and utility—not just a shift in user demographics. Their role is notable but not decisive.
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