Solana has recently experienced a notable price jump after confirmation that its first spot ETF with staking is set to launch on July 2, 2025. This development has sparked both excitement and caution among investors.
🔥 First-Ever U.S. ETF With Staking Rewards
The upcoming REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF will be the first fund in the U.S. to offer investors not only direct exposure to Solana’s spot price, but also on-chain staking rewards. This marks a major shift from previous crypto ETFs, which typically excluded staking due to regulatory and structural concerns.
Following the announcement, Solana’s price surged nearly 6%, reaching an intraday high of $158.30 before settling around $152.60. Despite the slight pullback, SOL remains roughly 44% above its yearly low, with a market cap exceeding $81.6 billion.
😐 Market Sentiment: Excitement with a Dose of Skepticism
Despite initial enthusiasm, investor sentiment remains cautious. One key concern is the size of the existing Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) – after over 43 months, it manages only $75 million in assets. This contrasts sharply with the Ethereum Trust, which reached $10 billion in assets just a month before its spot ETF launch in July 2024.
📉 Derivatives Show Signs of Weakness
Data from the derivatives market also reflects this uncertainty. On the Hyperliquid exchange, long positions still outweigh shorts slightly, but profits favor the bears. Short positions are currently up $6.71 million, while long positions are down more than $707,000 – suggesting many traders bought during the ETF hype and are now underwater.
💧 Network Liquidity Slipping
Further signs of weakness can be seen in the decline of stablecoin volume on Solana – from $13 billion in April down to $10.5 billion. This points to shrinking liquidity and reduced transactional demand across the ecosystem. Even the recent buzz around memecoins hasn’t helped much, with Solana network revenue dropping over 90% since January.
📊 Technical Picture: Solana at a Crossroads
On the daily SOL/USDT chart, Solana is now retesting a former descending trendline that previously triggered a rally. A drop back below this line could signal a return to bearish momentum.
Also concerning is that price action has slipped below the 50-day simple moving average, a widely-watched dynamic support level. This breakdown adds to a bearish technical outlook.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had jumped to 55 on the ETF news, has since fallen back to 51, reflecting fading buying pressure.
📉 Key Levels to Watch
🔹 First support: $143.10, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
🔹 If this level breaks, the next major support sits at $126.48, last month’s local low
A further risk for SOL investors is the looming unlock of over $585 million worth of unvested SOL shares in the next two months – potentially adding significant selling pressure.
⚖️ Will ETF Hype Outweigh the Weak Fundamentals?
While technicals and fundamentals look shaky, market sentiment can be a powerful force. If the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF draws strong investor inflows, that demand alone could outweigh current weaknesses and reignite accumulation of SOL.
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