SC02

📊 WINRATE ANALYSIS BASED ON MARKET SENTIMENT (FEAR & GREED INDEX)

Using daily winrate data from July 2024 to mid-May 2025, and aligning it with the CMC Fear and Greed Index, we divided the market sentiment into four key phases:

Extreme Fear – until March 20, 2025
Fear – March 21 to April 10, 2025
Neutral – April 11 to May 3, 2025
Greed – May 4 to May 13, 2025 (last date in dataset)

After compiling and calculating, the average winrate during each sentiment phase is as follows:

Neutral: 48.86% ✅
Greed: 46.21%
Fear: 45.42%
Extreme Fear: 43.47% ❗

📌 Insights:

The Neutral period yielded the highest trading performance over the past year, while the Extreme Fear phase showed the lowest winrate, reflecting unstable market conditions and defensive investor behavior.

Interestingly, even during the Greed phase, winrate didn’t spike as expected. This suggests that despite optimistic sentiment, the market may be more volatile and prone to traps — especially for momentum-based entries.

🧠 Suggested strategy:

The Neutral zone appears to be the most optimal period for stable trading with strong R:R potential. In contrast, during the Greed phase, risk management should be tightened to avoid overexposure and FOMO-driven decisions.

📌 Data range: July 3, 2024 – May 13, 2025
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